IAP Political Forum

I guess that no one opened a post on UK's local elections.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/04/europe/boris.php

As always, I'm a rookie in this issue but it seems that conservatives are well positioned to return to government again after the Blair's years.

Another thing that I want to highlight is the big transfer of seats between Labours and Conservatives "...Labour lost 331 seats over all, and the Conservative opposition gained 256...". In my opinion, pretty impressive.

It's Labour's worst result for 40 years.  But the Council elections can be a protest, the real election result can be very different.  I know many people who will vote for a party to slap the Government in the local Council election, but change to a different party in the General Election...tactical voters.

Brown has to do something though, the economy is going to hell in a handcart.  The Civil Service is a complete mess because of his reforms, the lowest paid have just been penalised by the scrapping of the 10 pence taxation band and they are livid and back bench MPs are forcing a compensation package into being against Brown's wish, the Oil Refinery strike in Scotland closed down the only refinery which supplies all of Scotland and the North of England, the teachers union has just held a strike which they have not done for 21 years, we already pay the highest fuel tax in Europe but petrol prices are to rise by 14% and it will cost around £80.00 to fill the tank of Ford Focus (which one of my cars happens to be)...it is getting worse and people are really starting to feel it and are getting angrier and angrier.

TBH I think it is out of his control.  There is too much going on simultaneously and I think he cannot handle it.  Where are they going?  Out of office IMO and not soon enough...

Much as it was hoped people would vote on local issues, I don't think they did. The abolition of the 10p rate was a very bad idea, and the main reason that the Tories took so much in the north.
As to the economy, most of its problems are not things that Brown has control over, they're to do with the global credit crunch.
I don't think there's really a great deal of reform that can be done (by either party) to massively improve Britain. But people will blame the government.
And there is always the fatigue factor: people have had Labour for 11 years now, they're tired of them. I think that it's very likely that the Tories will win the next election, unless Brown pulls a John Major. But when Major won in 1992 it's because people thought Labour would screw up the economy. I don't think that people will think the Tories will do that. So at the next election, I predict Cameron will be in.

I'll bet that Brownie is going to lose the next election.  Its written all over his dour mug.

Labour was only electable because of Blair.  Take Blair away and the Labour party starts looking like the same old and unelectable dinosaur party that it has always been.

In other words, the Labour party didn't win three elections in a row - Blair did.

You're probably right. Blair was able to present the party in such a way as to make it appealing to everyone. He had the charisma and the PR ability to win elections. Brown doesn't. This does mean that if he wins, it'll be because people like his policies, rather than are captivated by his charisma, a more honest way, but definitely much less likely.

Would you mind explaining to me the 10 pence thing?

Thanks in advance

Okay, when Labour came into power, they (by which I mean Gordon Brown) brought in a 10% tax band, between about £4000 and I think about £17000 income a year. So the poor paid less taxes (before then, that band was at the 20+ rate). I'm not sure about the exact numbers. But anyway, that was the lowest tax band, then above that you paid 22%, up to about £35000 a year, after that you paid 40%. But recently, Gordon Brown lowered the 22% rate to 20% but abolished the 10% rate, so from about £5000 to about £35000 (I think) you pay 20% income tax. So all the low-paid workers pay more tax. Now, he also raised benefits for low-paid parents and others who get income support, and is raising the minimum wage, but if you're a normal, childless, low-paid worker, you're paying a few hundred more pounds of tax a year, maybe a thousand. However, middle-class proffesionals are paying a bit less tax. So to most people, it looked like Gordon Brown was trying to buy middle-class votes at the expense of the working class, by abolishing a policy that he himself brought in 11 years ago. It's a very un-Labour policy. So as you can imagine, many Labour back-benchers, as old socialists and trade unionists, were very unhappy about this. And the Conservatives, who of course present themselves as a low-tax party, have been going around saying to working class people that Brown is raising their taxes. I note that the Tories have said that, if elected, they aren't promising to change the rates back... they wouldn't want to raise middle-class taxes, now would they!

Well no f*****g wonder people are angry.  Labour are supposed to be the working-class party, with a remit to protect the lowest paid and disadvantaged and they are being seen to misrepresent them. 
I really think Brown is way too interested in the balance sheet, as a hangover from running the Treasury.  He does not seem to have adjusted quickly enough to consider the rest of the picture, he is fixated by economics and losing sight of political spin.
Labour's outlook is so changed, it feels there is now no party representing the ordinary man in the street.
Brown is an astute politician, but he is a miserable big guy and does not have the charm that Blair did.  I still would not write him off though.  I think he is focusing on other areas, but will know he has to pull out the stops pretty soon.

Well it's probably because Labour has shifted its policies so much to the right under Blair's leadership that there's not much of a distinction between Labour and conservatives. Electing Cameron would just help bring a change and a bit of a fresh air.

That's the thing, at the end of the day, Labour could always say to the poor, "yeah, we may not be perfect, but we will at least try and help you, unlike the Tories." With the abolition of the 10p rate, working class people may suddenly decide that actually, the Tories would not be worse for them. This will seriously affect Labour's core vote, the urban working class, hence why they lost so much to the Tories in the North of England in the council elections, and in London.
The problem is, Brown keeps increasing things like Child Benefit, but that doesn't grab people's attention as much as a tax hike. So even if they end up with the same amount of money, they may not realise.
I think he really was aiming to buy middle class votes though. And that was a bad decision, predicated on the assumption that he could rely on working class votes as given. Yet we've seen in recent years, as Labour have moved right, that's become less reliable. Hence the rise of the BNP, for example (who now have a seat on the London Assembly), who aim at working class people. There is no longer a clear, working class party, so Labour cannot take working class votes for granted. They need to work for them.

Thanks for the English Polysci 101 course Oz :)

Thanks for your explanation. I guess that UK's next elections will take place in 2009, so I found this tax reform a risky one. But, truly, do you think that Brown can make such a reform without thinking about the next elections? In my opinion there are two ways of analyze the reform:

First, UK's economy needs that reform and that will leave the economy in 2009 in a better place that without doing that reform.
Second, Brown "takes" for granted working class people votes (hoping that they would forgot this issue next year or giving it less importance than now) and decides to fight for middle class people votes.

Anyway, I think that conservatives are working everywhere to develop tax systems with a single band or the minimum possible, and unfortunately, I think that left parties are helping them to achieve that goal.   

He's very good isn't he.  Even if I don't always see it his way, I still want him.










for my own forum...of course...what did you think I meant....

Gordon Brown is a worker.  Does not enjoy delegating, he is a workaholic. 

IMO he is working his way through his master plan and has a million things balanced simultaneously.  He is interested in getting through those and serving the country. 

Spin is not his priority at this time IMO.

What? New Labour and no spin? You gotta be kidding! I kinda agree that atleast Brown is not as much a spin doctor as Blair and his cabinet were. I guess he is just unlucky when he inherited an economy with all kinds of problems when Blair stepped aside. Glasgow bombing, credit crunch, etc, etc, etc... . That coupled with his lack of charisma and leadership is only adding to his unpopularity. Boris Johnson became London on the premise that a lot of disgruntled labour supporters had enough of Livingstone and his policies. I see the same happening with Labour in the next general election. Watch this space...

He is not like Blair and he knows it.  He is relying on his work to sway voters, which it will not the way things are going.  But I think he will make more of an effort closer to the time when he needs to and that is what I am waiting to see.  Despite lacking charisma, he is capable and hugely experienced and will have some idea of how to go about things.  It will be very interesting to observe how he approaches it.  Assuming that he has not completely lost control of his situation already...lol...and is still master of his fate.

He did not inherit an economy...he was overseeing the economy all along from his post as Chancellor.  He is not responsible for the world crisis, but could be held to account for the UK economy as no one but himself has had power over it since Blair came into power.

Boris Johnson, aka that mouthy nutcase, will take over from Ken Livingstone.  But Livingstone was hardly in favour with the Labour Party...he's been an outsider and regarded as a loose canon with them many times.

It proves democracy is a faraud.  The UK people always complain no matter which government.  we in china are happy with our party.  they lead us to strenght

Because you have no other options.  You really don't have even a basic understanding of what it is to be free do you?  Ask a party leader, he might explain it to you.

You dont have any idea of that.  UK is a police state today just look at there newspapers.  all they talk about is the crimes rate and murder their. 

here in china we are all safe from harm and crime.

You don't talk about your crime rate, but say you're safe from crime.  How would you know you are safe?  If you don't talk about the crime rate, you don't know what is going on. 

Hiding information does not change the reality of what is happening around you.
Information is power...

I never have been victim of crime.  friends have lived in UK and US and been burgle, robbed, beaten up, knifed. 

Lol...could be many reasons for that to happen though. :laugh:

I know a few Chinese people who live in this area.  They are the most frequent customers at the Casino in Glasgow and are well known as pretty addicted gamblers.  One friend lost his restaurant through this addiction.

I live in the UK and have never been beaten up, burgled, robbed or stabbed.  I live in a decent area, but there are bad areas everywhere, which local people know it is wise to avoid. 

Are you suggesting no one in China lives in a bad area? 

In poor place there have no crime too.  People can sit outside and talk, play the chess and cards, there have community, its not like uk or us where everyone is scared of the outside in the streets.

No one is scared of being outside here, fishbrain.  But you'd be after being mad to sit outside today.  It's bouncing with rain.

Anyway, the reality of living here is different from your perception, probably results from limited access to information about the world...

This is very typical of someone that bleats about 'you know nothing about china' to prove he knows nothing about anywhere else himself. 

Tell me about it. So much for a british weather... There's always a perfect finish to a good start with a thunder shower of course ;) 
On a serious note though Viv we do have a big problem here in UK with the yob cuture, binge drinking and rising crime rates typically amongst teenagers, which the current government seems unable to control. There seem to be a lack of direction and it's getting worse day by day. This coupled with lack of education and poor upbringing by parents are other contributory factors to the current phenomena IMO. 

Thank you kactus that is what i mean . we don't have these problems in china.

Undisputed, kactus.  Just sure there are similar in China... :laugh:

Or it is a Stepford life there? ::)  Inner cities have such problems everywhere. 

I do not live in a city, but close to a large town where there is a drug subculture and from that other problems arise. 

That is an issue which really irritates me...because of my line of work I am aware that there was no drug problem in this area until government cutbacks reduced the number of preventive officers here and importation of drugs became much more feasible.  The government has lost sight of the cause and available solution to this, i.e. to increase the physical presence of law enforcement.  Instead it is now conducting another round of destruction of the drug prevention forces which will no doubt reinforce the strength of the drug culture and the surrounding problems.

Teenagers will always drink if they can and rebel...

I can guarantee that even in poor part of China, there is no of these kind of problems here.  Young people are greatly loved by their families.  West has rich, but has forgotten the other thing.

I never hear of old lady being beaten by ten young people.  if that to happen in china, perputrators would be locked up for the rest of their lives.  it would not be thinkable for youngsters to smoke drugs or drink alcohol.

"""" This is very typical of someone that bleats about 'you know nothing about china' to prove he knows nothing about anywhere else himself.  """"

Well that would describe our resident super hero wouldn't it.

What do you know about China?
Jack !!!

Fact is, China, at a street level, is far safer than the west.
Cities in China are incredibly safe up until 2am and then, like anywhere, you should be a little wary.
In the villages everyone is in bed by 8pm anyway.

Respect for the old in China is miles ahead of the west.

You do get petty crime like pick pockets if you;re dumb enough.

But I will tell you this, in capitals, just in case tiny minds can't take it all in...

WHAT YOU DO NOT GET IN CHINA, IS CRIME FOR FUN.
YOU DO NOT GET 10 YOUNG GUYS LOOKING FOR TROUBLE AND BEATING UP ONE FOR FUN
YOU DO NOT GET OLD LADIES BASHED FOR FUN.

Live here for a while and you might climb of your high horse and realize how sick western society is becoming.

The thread is about the Labour Party in the UK?  People posting here are interested in that subject, that is why they are reading a thread about the UK.  Probably why they have no interest in hearing rhetoric about China.

Regarding your statements, no one can dispute them because China does not allow information to circulate.   

The west has faults, not disputed.  All societies do.  Call me old fashioned, I like making my own decisions and enjoy freedom of speech. 

To suggest that old people are not loved or cared for in the west is inaccurate.  They are.  The case you mention is in the news because it is unusual.

Regarding young people...they rebel, it is expected.  A temporary stage of growing up.  Here, they can get involved with things like protest rallies, as Government in the west doesn't take them off for private education, never to be seen again.  No doubt the youth issues which exist here, are affected by this prospect in China.  I do not regard shooting and flattening students with tanks, to be caring for children, btw.  What is your perpective on this:

No interest in the rhetoric about China....?

And yet you spew your racist rhetoric immediately after.....

No one can dispute them because why?
Because you don't live here, have never been here and have made up your racist mind with no knowledge.
This forum is a like cesspit of anti China rhetoric.
I have been here less than 24 hours and cannot believe the ignorance.

So, seeing that you decided to introduce your rhetoric into this thread.....

""""""""""""Regarding your statements, no one can dispute them because China does not allow information to circulate""""""""""
Just how ignorant are you? I am viewing this forum and writing from Shenzhen.
Because you probably wouldn't have a clue, Shenzhen is in China.
How is that I can read 95% of foreign web sites?
How is that I regularly watch debate over government on Chinese T.V in......wait for it.........Chinese language.
Yes, they actually speak Chinese in China.

"""" To suggest that old people are not loved or cared for in the west is inaccurate.  They are. """"
Some are, many are not. Many have been bashed, put in homes and forgotten about and otherwise abused.
Is that care? Chinese people care for their old far more than most westerners.
Maybe what you call care would be a poor excuse for care in China

""""""""""I like making my own decisions and enjoy freedom of speech """"""""""
What you get to vote for one of two morons every few years, do your little dance, whoooppeee I'm free.
Are you another narrow mind that believes that a vote can only be carried out within two parties?
If your government is so free, why don't they use modern media to hold real democratic referendums regularly.
Why not? Because they don't trust you to make the right decision, that's why.
You are nothing but a poor brain washed porn of the rich and elite English upper class.
Congratulations....

"""" A temporary stage of growing up.  """"
Bashings, throwing up all over the streets, Beating old ladies and men.
Glad you see it as just some small event in their process of maturing.

""" I do not regard shooting and flattening students with tanks, to be caring for children """
Another filthy racist comment. Yes that event was a mistake of many years ago. There is no doubt of that.
Now would you like me to list some atrocities in you high and mighty history?
How many would you like?
You are a typical two faced high and mighty racist. Your superiority complex screams racism.

I was going to agree with you that this thread has gone of course....

... but seeing as you're so into empty rhetoric, pardon me for straying.......

Bwahaha....I have been accused of many things in my life, but racism is not one of them.  Believe me I am neither high nor mighty and racism is not part of my makeup.  Your assumptions on who and what I am are pretty far from accurate.

You sound nice though.  I think you are persuading me that Chinese people are worth getting to know. ;D :laugh:

I have never heard of Shenzhen, you are right.  Have you heard of Gourock?   :P

That is not because I am not interested, or ignorant of other cultures, but purely because we have not been allowed to visit China due to your restrictions on travel from the west.  Many people here find Chinese culture interesting, but mysterious because access is restricted in that way.

As to my own political affiliations, I support independence for my country.  The imperialist approach has never been a favourite of mine.  But thank you for the blanket categorisation.  I understand the point - all westerners are the same and they are all bad.

It is simplistic, is it not?

Perhaps both sides can be simplistic at times...

I am not Chinese, but Australian with an English father and Scottish mother.
However, I can tell you after traveling to more than 30 countries around the world that the Chinese people are generally...
polite, a little shy, mostly kind, and really quite wonderful.

Now Gourock?
Isn't that in Scotland?
If so, what do you mean about travel restrictions to China?
There are none.

Let me explain a little more of my anger.
The TN square incident was a mistake.
Personally I do not think China was ready for such a movement at that time but a mistake nonetheless.
However, why do people in the west keep bringing it up as though it happened last year.
I have been coming here for 20 years and the China I first saw is nothing, absolutely nothing like the China I see today.
Why do I view it as racism?
Because it is used as a weapon.
If you google My Lai massacre you will find an incident involving Americans far more brutal than TN.
You will find references to the bayoneting of babies and countless horrific crimes.
The officer in charge was personally found responsible for the slaughter of 22 innocent men, women and children.
And yet, the majority of the American public believed he should not be charged with murder.
He served a couple of years of house arrest before being released and living as a happy family Jeweller in the north of the U.S

Is it racism?
You tell me?

The shooting at TN happened after the protesters torched an armoured car and the occupants were forced out in flames.
Was it the government that caused it? Some over zealous soldiers? Who knows the answer.
China doesn't look for excuses. The culture of China accepts a situation, learns from it and moves on.

Who brings up My lai every day of the week that the U.S is mentioned?
Read it thoroughly and you'll find plenty of excuses there....
I mean what does it take to bayonet a pregnant women or child?

OOpps sorry, I forgot , they were just geeks anyway....
But hang on, i TN they were just slopes????

How come one is so easily brushed aside and yet the other used as a weapon?

...Now you might understand why I often get angry with other foreigners.

Many of us here are well travelled.  We are here BECAUSE we are interested in learning about different cultures. 
Very shy.  I know a few.


I think you mean, there are none now.  Fairly recent development. 


Indeed.


If your culture is attacked and exceptional examples are used, defend by replying in kind...


The world is changing.


No, it was used in defence.  To demonstrate that these things happen in all cultures and we should not judge the entire populace by such acts.


The world is aware of it.


Terrible things happen in war.  That is why it is to be avoided.  IMO it is better to be open to other cultures than to attack them.  Exchange of ideas and mutual respect...achieves more than uninformed biase and accusation.


Excuses are different from reasons.  If you do not analyse the cause, you cannot prevent reccurence or learn from it.


Foreigners...lol...you should be careful with that.  It could appear as a racist statement ::) ;)

1. Going anywhere to learn about other cultures is great. However the self professed China experts that have never been to China and would have trouble finding it on a map are in abundance here.

2. No, not true. China has for the past eight years been about the easiest country to both travel to or live in, in the entire world. Prior to that it was always very easy to travel to. Maybe if you were a Chinese person trying to travel to the west you would have a much better idea about what the term "close door" means

3. "Indeed" suggest a judgmental answer as I would expect.

4. Most of the attacking I see is by the west against China.

5. No, the world is not aware of it. If you said the words My Lai to 100 foreigners, how many would look at you with a blank expression. Did you answer "Indeed" to this.

6. Terrible things happen in riots as well. Did you think the armoured car personal that were set on fire were having a Sunday picnics?  That is no excuse. Did you post here about how terrible it was that two young Han Chinese girls were burned alive in the recent riots in Tibet? Ot did that not matter to this forum.

7. No. You once again dismiss Chinese culture and force your own on China. That is racial superiority where you have no interest in learning about Chinese culture but force your own down their throat.

8. When you live as an expat in China it is common to refer to Chinese or foreigners. Nothing racist whatsoever in that statement. I am a foreigner living in China. From where I sit right now, you are also a foreigner.

Apologies for a few typo's .
Doesn't seem to be an edit function here and I don;t use spell checkers

What travel restrictions to China?

Go to the Chinese Embassy (or Consulate) in your country ... get visa ... go to China - piece of cake.

Now, try being Chinese and trying to visit the UK, for example ... much harder.

Again, what travel restrictions to China? I have been there 7 times in the last 4 years ... it is very easy.

From now on cunes posts that are just a load of crap with nothing to do with the thread will be deleted.

mr_pluck and viv can carry on in peace.


I could just ban him but it's much more satisfying to delete him.


EDIT: Ok actually now he's gone for good. It was his goal anyways.

mr_pluck


Naturally the point here is any native Chinese leaving the country any time they like. I've only heard a few stories about this but they weren't good. Maybe you can tell me: what are the challenges faced by a Chinese person who wants to travel outside the country -- vacation whatever. I've heard many things but the mostly come down to it being very hard to get permission unless you're going off to study.


Ahk

What stops them leaving is usually a) getting a visa, b) the cost of travel.

The US is probably the hardest visa process for the mainland Chinese. The process for visiting the UK (probably the 2nd most difficult process) as a tourist from mainland China (not HK) requires substantial paperwork, documentation and evidence - proof of income, proof of savings, proof of employment, proof of permission from your employer, proof of where you will stay, etc.

For a British citizen to visit China requires a form, a photo and a payment. For the run up to the Olympics you also need to show an air ticket and a hotel booking.

OK thank you. That sounds like an honest answer and that's all Im looking for. I could wax rhetorical and say that this was my point in an earlier thread about permission to travel but I am so shocked by a level-headed sincere answer that I just don't have the heart. Instead I'll +1 ya.

Yeah, it is often a letter or proof of some form - demanded by the foreign Embassy.

Now for an on-topic post ...

The Labour Party is going up its own backside, where it belongs  ;D

Labour party will have to work hard on getting back what they lost, 10 pence taxation band has become the biggest issue that has seemed to have caused them the most problems but as someone else has probility said already the general elections can be very different result from the council as people voice their unhappiness on issues by voting for someone else.

To be honest I think the UK needs a proper revolution.