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Author Topic: The Future Economy  (Read 465 times)
Zenter
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« on: November 27, 2007, 02:37:01 AM »

The world is becoming more and more globalized every day, with an increasing amount of skilled jobs in the United States going overseas. In response to this, the United States has become an economy which increasingly revolves around the service industry. Salaries vary immensely in the service field, but most people working in the field largely belong to the minimum-wage Wal-mart category. This has caused the Middle Class to decline and an increasing gap in wealth distribution to emerge, with the top 10% in this country earning 90% of the wealth in the United States.

While salaries are continuing to lower for the average American however, these people at least still have jobs. 20-30 years from now though, this may not be the case. It may sound far fetched, but robots/machines will largely replace many jobs for people in the service industry. Instead of a person cooking your burger at Mcdonalds for example, a robot/machine will, instead of a stock boy stocking the shelves at Wal-mart, a robot will, and this is just the start. Many jobs which require little thinking will be increasingly replaced by robots as this century moves forward.

With these jobs replaced, I wonder what these workers will be left to do to provide for themselves and their families. Will this economy force everyone to learn a skill or receive education? Will immigration largely cease since robots will provide even cheaper labor? I question how ready our country and perhaps even the world is for this technology.....
« Last Edit: November 27, 2007, 02:39:22 AM by Zenter » Logged
Gojira
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2007, 11:11:18 AM »

Good post and topic.

I think we left our poor behind.  We gave them a terrible education and failed them as mentors and now they have to suffer the consequences; they don't have the ability to move socially upward. 

Usually, this country was built upon waves of immigration.  They did the jobs no one else wanted to do and hopefully, by getting a Free education their sons and daughters can rise up and move up in socio-economic status. 

Unfourtunately, I find that our cultural values influenced by American ideals and corporate business has split us from realizing what is really important; our American people. 

Because education in this country has fallen apart, many of those who should have moved upward, have not and now we have a polarized income distribution where it is damn near impossible for anyone to rise up out of the shackles that these cultural values have placed on them.   They have become sedentary consumers who are spending more than they earn because of the American Dream they thought they were promised but were never granted.

It is an interesting time and I am excited to see what the next party in office will have in store for this problem.
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Zenter
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« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2007, 04:39:13 PM »

I agree Gojira, the education system has definitely failed many people in this country. We have an outdated elementary education system. Instead of students learning subjects they have an interest in, we have a country devoted to reading writing and arithmetic. While the 3 R's are important, the world requires a lot more than just the 3 R's. We need to modernize the education system and do it soon.

We already have 1 out of 10 high schools in America with a dropout rate of over 60% (aka "dropout factories"), a lack of skilled labor in many fields (because many young adults are either going to college, or not doing squat with their lives), and an increase in crime (because even the poor have to get money somehow).

I won't say I fully understand why there is not more of a focus on the education system of this country, but it seems like to me a large reason why is because people don't care about the education of others in this country. We have a "me first...and second" mentality in this country and many people (though not the majority) in this country seem to genuinely not care if a person receives a subpar education. Perhaps because they don't realize the benefits  that come with quality education.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2007, 04:41:51 PM by Zenter » Logged
gommi
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« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2007, 06:53:16 PM »

Very true. A failing education system in conjunction with unstable employment due to outsourcing and other conditions are reducing the standard of living. These two factors are interconnected however, as conservative government policy lifts taxes and controls from corporations, increasing competition and causing them to outsource, while diminishing revenue for the government leads to a decrease in public education spending and reform.

This is the recipe for insecurity.
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Zenter
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2007, 07:59:06 PM »

Very true. A failing education system in conjunction with unstable employment due to outsourcing and other conditions are reducing the standard of living. These two factors are interconnected however, as conservative government policy lifts taxes and controls from corporations, increasing competition and causing them to outsource, while diminishing revenue for the government leads to a decrease in public education spending and reform.

On top of all that, the tax breaks given by conservative government policy favor the wealthy and cause the Middle Class to take on an even heavier burden. Not to mention the massive debt and trade deficit our country is taking on which is causing or will very soon cause a further decline in the standard of living for many people in this country.

This is the recipe for insecurity.

We're already starting to see the signs with illegal immigration becoming such a large issue. After that could come widening discrimination against Muslims and Arabs and perhaps even blacks and Jews. Hate crimes are already on the rise.
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neorealist
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2007, 09:42:35 PM »

The world is becoming more and more globalized every day, with an increasing amount of skilled jobs in the United States going overseas. In response to this, the United States has become an economy which increasingly revolves around the service industry. Salaries vary immensely in the service field, but most people working in the field largely belong to the minimum-wage Wal-mart category. This has caused the Middle Class to decline and an increasing gap in wealth distribution to emerge, with the top 10% in this country earning 90% of the wealth in the United States.

While salaries are continuing to lower for the average American however, these people at least still have jobs. 20-30 years from now though, this may not be the case. It may sound far fetched, but robots/machines will largely replace many jobs for people in the service industry. Instead of a person cooking your burger at Mcdonalds for example, a robot/machine will, instead of a stock boy stocking the shelves at Wal-mart, a robot will, and this is just the start. Many jobs which require little thinking will be increasingly replaced by robots as this century moves forward.

With these jobs replaced, I wonder what these workers will be left to do to provide for themselves and their families. Will this economy force everyone to learn a skill or receive education? Will immigration largely cease since robots will provide even cheaper labor? I question how ready our country and perhaps even the world is for this technology.....

Increased efficiency is a good thing.  Highly productive automated manufacturing (service not so much...sorry but a robot isn't going to serve me a burger in our lifetime) reduces your cost.  Do you have an idea how much a plane or car would cost with automated manufacturing?  Do you have an idea how much BETTER automated manufacturing is than mans?  I do.

I worked in quality engineering for 6 years...hands on automated welder calibration and certification.  I'm not the person who built them, but the person who worked on the them and tested them to ensure quality standards.  I can FULLY assure you they at ten fold better than any man hand welding.  It produces a safer and cheaper product.

switching gears,

The education only fails those who choose to fail.  I understand not all children are provided equal opportunity; however, there is a degree of opportunity that exists here and its up the family and parental values to capitalize on it.
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Zenter
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2007, 09:30:07 AM »


Increased efficiency is a good thing.  Highly productive automated manufacturing (service not so much...sorry but a robot isn't going to serve me a burger in our lifetime) reduces your cost.  Do you have an idea how much a plane or car would cost with automated manufacturing?  Do you have an idea how much BETTER automated manufacturing is than mans?  I do.

I worked in quality engineering for 6 years...hands on automated welder calibration and certification.  I'm not the person who built them, but the person who worked on the them and tested them to ensure quality standards.  I can FULLY assure you they at ten fold better than any man hand welding.  It produces a safer and cheaper product.

switching gears,

The education only fails those who choose to fail.  I understand not all children are provided equal opportunity; however, there is a degree of opportunity that exists here and its up the family and parental values to capitalize on it.

Neorealist, you took what I said completely the wrong way. Perhaps some introspection is necessary on your part to figure out why you did that.

I was not saying that robots taking jobs is a bad thing, which you clearly thought I was saying, I was merely asking what will happen when people who work those jobs no longer can find work...a question which you failed to even attempt to answer.
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neorealist
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« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2007, 01:37:05 PM »

ahem....my mistake.

I would say that those people need to get a higher education...or at least promote their children too; otherwise, they will prolly get left behind.
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Zenter
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2007, 02:12:59 PM »

otherwise, they will prolly get left behind.


And the question is....what happens to those who get left behind? There surely will be plenty of individuals who will be left behind, what role will they play in society? What role will they have in society? These are questions which I can't even speculate on.
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Gojira
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2007, 09:35:40 AM »

otherwise, they will prolly get left behind.


And the question is....what happens to those who get left behind? There surely will be plenty of individuals who will be left behind, what role will they play in society? What role will they have in society? These are questions which I can't even speculate on.

We throw them in the prison system of course.  Grin
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Zenter
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2007, 01:34:15 PM »

We throw them in the prison system of course.  Grin

Sad, but true....
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gommi
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2007, 03:38:31 PM »

You will find that the free-market does not provide a solution to this problem. Without government intervention, there is no entity that can alleviate underemployment.
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Zenter
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2007, 06:09:20 PM »

You will find that the free-market does not provide a solution to this problem. Without government intervention, there is no entity that can alleviate underemployment.

Perhaps, or perhaps there will be work available we just don't know what yet. I think your right though, government intervention would be necessary. Especially if there is SEVERE underemployment. The question is, will the US cave to the interests of those who can't find quality work? It's not right now....

I think as you noted, the free-market does not provide a solution to this problem and in fact many problems because it is too primitive. It depends on ever expanding growth, unlimited resources, and regards human beings as mere numbers to be "capitalized" on.

Now i'm not saying other systems developed are any better, i'm just saying we're going to be facing serious problems soon enough in this country and I think we need to start becoming more aware of these problems. The most paramount of all of these problems being the education crisis we are currently faced it. A poorly educated America will lead to a third world America. Even the CIA Worldfactbook is acknowledging what is currently occurring in the US economy.

The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html


Coincidentally, since 1980, the prison population of the US has tripled, while the US has continued to slash funding for education. In California alone, 21 prisons were built from 1984 to 1994 and only one University was built. Furthermore, California prison spending increase 209%, while education spending only rose 14%.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a correlation between a decline in investment for education and an increase in crime. Anyone have any figures proving or disproving that theory?

Also, what do you all think? Does this need to change?
« Last Edit: December 02, 2007, 06:17:34 PM by Zenter » Logged
Gojira
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2007, 07:11:05 PM »

You will find that the free-market does not provide a solution to this problem. Without government intervention, there is no entity that can alleviate underemployment.

Perhaps, or perhaps there will be work available we just don't know what yet. I think your right though, government intervention would be necessary. Especially if there is SEVERE underemployment. The question is, will the US cave to the interests of those who can't find quality work? It's not right now....

I think as you noted, the free-market does not provide a solution to this problem and in fact many problems because it is too primitive. It depends on ever expanding growth, unlimited resources, and regards human beings as mere numbers to be "capitalized" on.

Now i'm not saying other systems developed are any better, i'm just saying we're going to be facing serious problems soon enough in this country and I think we need to start becoming more aware of these problems. The most paramount of all of these problems being the education crisis we are currently faced it. A poorly educated America will lead to a third world America. Even the CIA Worldfactbook is acknowledging what is currently occurring in the US economy.

The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html


Coincidentally, since 1980, the prison population of the US has tripled, while the US has continued to slash funding for education. In California alone, 21 prisons were built from 1984 to 1994 and only one University was built. Furthermore, California prison spending increase 209%, while education spending only rose 14%.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a correlation between a decline in investment for education and an increase in crime. Anyone have any figures proving or disproving that theory?

Also, what do you all think? Does this need to change?

Sounds like it would make an interesting regression analysis.
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Our democracy has created an environment of indecision at times of impending crisis. 

If life is easy for you, then you aint livin.
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