IAP Political Forum
November 23, 2008, 08:15:49 AM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?

Login with username, password and session length
News: Support IAP -- join "High Society" with less fuss. Click "paid subscriptions" from your profile.
 
   Home   Blog Forum   Help Search Chat Login Register  
Digg This!
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Do rare events falsify the notion of a universal probability bound?  (Read 2567 times)
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2007, 05:18:46 AM »


This example has something selecting M and then M preferring e.  First off, it is a just so narrative with no real world actuality short of a designed computer program that performs this example.  Ignoring for the moment that it is not an actual case, one then wonders what this something could be other than design, but let's leave that additional problem also for now. These are both artificial boundary conditions that dramatically reduce the number of permutations available for chance to obtain.  When these boundary conditions are included in the calculation, this event has a combined probability very, very, very close to one.  This example as described is not rare at all.
Again, you are trying to force the idea that all events are random, or they are guided by intelligence. YOUR PRESUPPOSITION.

The real world has preferrence, there is the proprties of chemicals that react to other chemicals, there is gravity that attracts, or the strong or weak nuclear force, or magnetism, etc.

The dice ARE loaded by the very nature of the universe.

Quote
In summary you are presupposing an artificial just so scenario (despite claiming you would offer an actual one) whereby the landscape of the set of possible permutations for a presumed "rare event" contains a fitness function with continual pathways containing gentle slopes from any arbitrary point in the landscape to the presumed "rare event".  If this is the case, then after the probability analysis is complete, once again the probability of obtaining this event is near 1.0.  This is not a an example of rare event at all.

Your examples do not deliver on your promise to demonstrate how rare events invalidate probability theory as it relates to limits on probabilistic opportunities.  Blind searches and fitness searches are included as components in probability analysis and do not violate the concept of probabilistic resources.

Only you consider the observable universe an artificial scenario.

Still nothing from you on an "actual" case from the real world to support the claim you made.  The universe is not artificial.  Your just so descriptions of hypothetical cases are artificial.


Quote
Quote
No, I don't see that we can demonstrate that the universe contains any of these claimed fitness functions
Why not?

Because we cannot deductvely point to any actual example where such a fitness function exists. We can speculate as you have done, but these speculations are nothing more than articles of faith.  Probability theory provides the basis to be skeptical of the existence of any fitness funtions derived solely by materialistic processes because of the exponential inflation of the degrees of freedom and therefore the large number of possible unworkable fitness functions as compared to the relatively few workable ones. 

While design is very proficient at carefully selecting boundary conditions and deriving fitness functions that are quite cabable of searching solution space for optimums, it is this observation that humans are able to select workable fitness functions that enspire evolutionary biologists to think that natural selection, genetic processes and chemic relationships together acts as a fitness function to generate observed diversity but there is no good evidence to support this imagination.

Quote
Quote
You imply that some mineral has created a fitness function that selects for self replicating molecules , but this also is a just so narrative with no actual example and even if there was an actual example, this event would not be considered probabilistically rare.
Scientists are working on this and other problems. I wouldn't expect you to understand.

I understand that you cling to these imaginative stories and hold them as an article of faith that perhaps one of these ideas will somehow overcome the theorems that strongly suggest otherwise.

Quote
Quote
The configuration of biologically active chemicals and in particular the portions that store information to build, direct, and manage metabolic and developmental processes are such that there is no chemical affinity to the combinations obtained.  There is nothing to predispose the combinations to any particular workable pattern over unworkable patterns.  Real observations of biological systems directly and clearly contradicts barney's just so narratives.  There is absolutely no chemical basis to suggest that some pathways and some combinations of chemical configurations are preferred over others and therefore no basis to suggest that the kind of fitness function barney presupposes exists.

Then I suggest you study some Chemistry. Spelled C.h.e.m...  NOT C.h.r.i.s.t....

Strange that an architect thinks he knows more about chemistry than a Chemical Engineer.  Still no example of an actual rare event that overcomes the theoretical limits obtained by accounting for the probablistic resources.

Quote
Btw, what makes something inert or not? Have you heard of the term?

Inert is not a term generally used to describe the chemic properties of biological coding systems. Affinity is the term generally used.  The relative differences in affinity between coding bases is very very small.

Now how about that actual rare event that overturns the concept of a universal probability limit?
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2007, 09:14:49 AM »

Strange that an architect thinks he knows more about chemistry than a Chemical Engineer.  Still no example of an actual rare event that overcomes the theoretical limits obtained by accounting for the probablistic resources.
Yes, very strange and I would imagine quite rare.

But there it is.

Quote
Btw, what makes something inert or not? Have you heard of the term?
Inert is not a term generally used to describe the chemic properties of biological coding systems. Affinity is the term generally used.  The relative differences in affinity between coding bases is very very small.
Yes, very good, but I asked about inert. It's a Chemistry term.  You are jumping ahead to biology when the UPB is clearly about basic interactions of particles.  I am educating you in some basic Chemistry that you seem to ignore in the creation of your God.

If the basic chemicals are prone to specific combinations or not, it is not random as Dembski's UPB suggests.  You both constantly return to this Straw Man. The natural properties of the universe load the dice.
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2007, 09:52:21 PM »

Strange that an architect thinks he knows more about chemistry than a Chemical Engineer.  Still no example of an actual rare event that overcomes the theoretical limits obtained by accounting for the probablistic resources.
Yes, very strange and I would imagine quite rare.

But there it is.

In your case not too rare, you often think you know a lot more than your words reveal.

Quote
Quote
Btw, what makes something inert or not? Have you heard of the term?
Inert is not a term generally used to describe the chemic properties of biological coding systems. Affinity is the term generally used.  The relative differences in affinity between coding bases is very very small.
Yes, very good, but I asked about inert. It's a Chemistry term.  You are jumping ahead to biology when the UPB is clearly about basic interactions of particles.  I am educating you in some basic Chemistry that you seem to ignore in the creation of your God.

If the basic chemicals are prone to specific combinations or not, it is not random as Dembski's UPB suggests.  You both constantly return to this Straw Man. The natural properties of the universe load the dice.

Elements and molecules that are chemically inert have no reactive affinity at all. 

The basic elements that could potentially make up self-replicating polymers are not prone to the combinations that would allow for construction of the appropriate polymers.  Instead they combine in unfavorable configurations by competing cross reactions that destroy any potential to form constructive biologically important configurations.  You are creating unrealistic "just so" narratives with your wishful thinking.
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2007, 08:10:43 AM »

RF, you keep howling about "just so narratives", can't you see this is what you do?

RF (I'm paraphrasing) "It's just so that evolution can't work! It's just so that God exists! It's just so that life can't form! It's just so because its too much to imagine! Its impossible because look at my numbers! it doesn't compute!"
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2007, 08:50:07 AM »

A just so narrative is one that is offered with no direct support for the central claim being made.

RF, you keep howling about "just so narratives", can't you see this is what you do?

I distinguish between supported claims and just so narratives.  You have made a claim that rare events disprove the notion of a limit on probability based on limited resources for chance to act.  I ask for support and all I get are "just so" and "what if" narratives.  Let me show you the difference between the two of us.

Quote from: barney
RF (I'm paraphrasing) "It's just so that evolution can't work!

I provide the observed evidence and a scientific basis for why observed evolutionary processes can't on their own, derive the diversity we observe.  This evidence and basis supports the narrative.  It is not "just because" as your claims are.

Quote
It's just so that God exists!

There is a great deal of direct and indirect evidence supporting the existence of God.  You turn a blind eye to and go out of your way to deny the evidence, primarily through a prior commitment to materialism, whereby you hijack much the evidence and claim it for your own and then out and out dismiss the historical evidence.

Quote
It's just so that life can't form! It's just so because its too much to imagine! Its impossible because look at my numbers! it doesn't compute!"

Probability and chemical reaction kinetics, chemical affinity and association characteristics provide the basis to demonstrate that self replicating polymers with the unique characteristic of being able to increase complexity and associated function cannot be derived by chemical means alone.  If chemistry alone can account for life, we would be able to observe the low level chemical characteristics that enable this.  Instead we observe that while chemicals can be purposefully guided to form these kinds of polymers, they do not form of their own accord.  Once again, science and mathematics supports my claim.

Still anxious to see support for your claim.


Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2007, 10:46:48 AM »

They are all arguments from ignorance. Do you have any POSITIVE evidence?

No.
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2007, 06:55:51 AM »

Yes.  Genetic engineers use design to generate and place large increases of new information into systems that lack them.  Medical researchers have great success designing chemical corrections to biological disfunction indicating that design is quite capable of improving biological function. Design is demonstrating that it can evolve biological systems.

Still waiting for your positive and actual case where a rare event overturns probability theory.
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2007, 12:32:02 PM »

Why do you continue to move the goal posts?  I never said rare events overturn probability theory.

What kind of inane game are you playing?
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2007, 09:34:48 PM »

English language allows for paraphrasing.  Still waiting. 
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #24 on: December 23, 2007, 11:52:25 AM »

English language allows for paraphrasing.  Still waiting. 
When you say paraphrase do you mean changing the context?

RF, I have shown you at least 5 different ways the UPB is useless. You choose not to agree because you are wedded to it.
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: December 24, 2007, 06:52:15 AM »

And each one you dropped when you were alerted to the logical and technical problems your examples contained.  None were valid.  I realize you are at a disadvantage because of your weaknesses in probability analysis, but you should not make claims that you are unable to support with sound principles from the subject area.

Still waiting.  Why not revive what you think is the best of the five and this time support it vigorously?
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #26 on: December 24, 2007, 07:53:09 AM »

I will when ID is considered a science by the scientific community.  Until then, I realize I am trying to reason mythology with a believer.
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Reasoned Faith
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +146/-165
Posts: 893


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: December 24, 2007, 10:48:49 AM »

Then you have failed to support your claim. I'm not sure why I should be surprised, though.  Your problem is not that you try to reason, your problem is that your reasoning is flawed and your technical support is abysmal.
Logged
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #28 on: December 24, 2007, 01:08:20 PM »

Then you have failed to support your claim. I'm not sure why I should be surprised, though.  Your problem is not that you try to reason, your problem is that your reasoning is flawed and your technical support is abysmal.

RF, you are welcome to believe what you want, but I have given you the info to show how the UPB is useless.

Thanks for helping me understand ID better.
Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
daedalus 2.0
Hero Member
*****

Karma: +69/-397
Posts: 1,145



View Profile
« Reply #29 on: December 26, 2007, 09:36:52 AM »

Its a shame you won't continue this thread. I have more thoughts on the matter.

For example, can you tell me the difference between how we recognize something designed against a field of random events?

Because it occurs to me that you do accept that there are material explanations for some things, that it, there are events that your designer didn't do.  For example, Hurricanes and the results of FW.

Can we say that you accept these as true? Can we say that it is a necessary condition of the UPB, probability theory and ID that there are random events that aren't affected by a designer or god?

Because if ALL events are affected by God, then how do you seperate them?

So, I assume that the UPB hinges on the idea that random events do indeed happen. That they are free of a Designers Will.  That is, a necessary condition of the Universe, as ID postulates, is that there are random events.

Can we say that you are human? And that you understand this?

Again, you seem to hinge your world view on the Necessity that there are random events that have no contingency (not that each event is not contingent, but that Randomness itself exists as a Necessary Condition).

Or, does your designer control all those events, but make them appear contingent... which means they are all Determined (and yet Randomness (or FW) is a Necessary part of the Universe?!?!!?!)?


Please clarify your view so we can continue this discussion.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2007, 10:09:45 PM by daedalus 2.0 » Logged

\\\\"SUCK IT, JESUS!\\\\" Kathy Griffin
\"Hitler burns Anne Frank for a day, and it\'s Evil.
God burns Anne Frank for eternity, and it\'s Just.\"Anon
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.4 | SMF © 2006-2007, Simple Machines LLC
Joomla Bridge by JoomlaHacks.com
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 1.39 seconds with 27 queries.