I thought tax cuts made jobs
Tax cuts themselves don't make jobs. However, more cashflow in the economy makes people have more capital to spend which creates demand for products, which reduces inventory which causes people to hire more people to meet the demand.
Pretty simple, really.
Exactly. More cashflow increases aggregate demand which stimulates supply and everything's hunky-dorey again.
But the key question is, what are the best policies for increasing cashflow? That's pretty simple, too. The best policies for stimulating an economy are policies that put money in the hands of those who will immediatly spend it. Like low and middle class people. Like the unemployed.
Not the rich--yuppies swapping stock doesn't do a whole lot for increasing cashflow. According to Mark Zandi at Economy.com:
"[High income earners] are substantially less likely to spend any tax savings quickly than lower and middle income households. An estimated less than one-half of any tax benefit to households with incomes above the median are spent within one-year of receiving the benefit. This compares to nearly 90% for households with incomes below the median."Zandi assigns an estimate of how much GDP increases for each dollar spent on stimulus (or lost in tax revenue).
Extend Federal Unemployment Benefits-----1.73
10% Personal Income Tax Bracket ---------1.34
State Government Aid---------------------1.24
Child Tax Credit Rebate--------------------1.04
Marriage Tax Penalty----------------------0.74
Alternative Minimum Tax Adjustments------0.67
Personal Marginal Tax Rate Reductions-----0.59
Business Investment Writeoff--------------0.24
Dividend-Capital Gain Tax Reduction-------0.09
Estate Tax Reduction---------------------0.00
source (pdf) The three most effective policies for stimulating the economy are all focused on low income or needy individuals: extending federal unemployment benefits, reducing the lowest tax bracket, and state aid (which is targetted at the needy).
Another plus to these policies is that they are also temporary (except for the 10 percent bracket), whereas less effective and hugely costly policies like tax cuts for the rich are permanent--once the economy has recovered, extending unemployment benefits can end. But Bush's tax cuts keep ballooning the deficit, year after year after year, long after the economy no longer needs that stimulus.
Since this is all so simple, why did the Bushies largely refuse to select the most effective, temporary, and least costly measures? Because those policies run counter to conservative ideology.
Pretty simple, really--ideology trumps reality.
Anyway, since we're possibly approaching a period of recession, we may need to choose policies to deal with it. This time around, could we please choose policies that make economic sense?