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Author Topic: Israel's attack on Syria analysis  (Read 1488 times)
CedarPride
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« on: September 17, 2007, 08:05:25 AM »

A little over a week ago, Israeli warplanes entered Syria's air space and fired inside Syria. Syria said it will respond in due time.

No official reason was given for the attack, but there were many "leaks", some saying they attacked a weapons shipment destined to Hizbullah, others say it was "suspected" nuclear shipment from North Korea....

Here is another version:

Israel says deterrent ability recovered after Syria strike

Quote
JERUSALEM (AFP) — Israel boasted on Sunday it has recovered its "deterrent capability" after an air strike in Syria triggered warnings of retaliation and intense media speculation over the aim of the operation.

"The new situation affects the entire region, including Iran and Syria," military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin told parliament's powerful foreign affairs and defence committee, local media reported.

In keeping with an official Israeli wall of silence on the event, Yadlin told lawmakers he would not address the incident directly, but his statements "alluded to the Israeli raid," public radio reported.

He said Israel had now recovered its "deterrent capability" following the 2006 war against Lebanon's Hezbollah.

()

Tsahi Hanegbi, head of the Israeli foreign affairs and defence committee, earlier said the government has adopted a policy of silence over the incident to ease tensions, but was taking Syrian threats of retaliation seriously.

"We have to show restraint and it is in our interest to say nothing... This policy has proven itself. The tensions have slightly eased since 12 days ago. The more we bite our tongue, the better it will go," he told public radio.

He said the tensions with Syria were a direct result of the bloody war between Israel and the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah in Lebanon last year that was regarded by many in Israel as a failure.

"The Syrians had the impression that we were in a state of weakness and they threw themselves into an unprecedented campaign of arms purchases," Hanegbi said.

As soon as the war ended last year, I said Israel will seek a new conflict to restore its credibilty as the myth of the Israeli army was destroyed.

It seems I was correct. I should call myself "Prophet"  Wink

Seriously, where is the outrage by the UN (where Syria has protested the incident), and would Syria be justified in leveling North Israel as a result of Israel crossing its borders?

Within a year, two cross-border operations took place in the area.

Interesting to see the reaction of the International community to both operations, eh?

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Middle East forum 101
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I committed the cardinal sin in the ME region of actually trying to post something relevant to the thread topic.
14-years-old-jane
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2007, 08:41:09 AM »

i wanted to open exactly the same thread today but then i felt lazy,,,

now there are few new developments in there,,, Assad approved internal investigation on how information about Israeli Air Forces attack within Syria leaked into Arab press,,, All shows Israel did attack something within Syria that Syrian doesn't want to talk about thus all the secret about the attack,,, Some Syrians praised Israeli attack as they dislike Assad and Israel damaged his creditability big time,,,

Now it doesn't matter what happened so far as Assad is big and only looser in whole issue,,, not Syrians, Syria or Russian hi-tech weapons which couldn't fight American planes with Israeli computers on them but Assad,,,

seems everyone happy,,, except his new best friend Ahminijude who treat Israel with 900 missiles ( 500kg-1000kg ) for starters if US attacks Iran and banned Google and Gmail this week,,,

Democracy aye? Then Saudis are not the worst religious tyranny in the world,,, i expect Venezuelian clown to follow his monkeh friend as soon as he gets what Google is about,,,
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CedarPride
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2007, 08:49:00 AM »

Assad approved internal investigation on how information about Israeli Air Forces attack within Syria leaked into Arab press

Do you have a source? Because as I recall, I first heard of it from the Syrian national news agency SANA as soon as it happened, which doesn't broadcast anything unless approved by the regime

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Patton
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2007, 11:37:08 AM »

I find it all very troublesome, and fear there is a GREAT deal more to this than anyone may realize.

I don't think Israel would do something like this unless she felt a very real threat to security.

I also find Syrias' reaction intresting...does she not protest too much for fear that Israel has some satellite data or other hard "proof' of what was hit?

In a region approaching the precipice of a fullscale regional conflict, Israels actions were bold, aggressive and destructive in the goal of regional stability to say the least.
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2007, 11:53:26 AM »

I find it all very troublesome, and fear there is a GREAT deal more to this than anyone may realize.

I don't think Israel would do something like this unless she felt a very real threat to security.

Israel feels like she is SURROUNDED by endless threats. She could probably justify an attack with little actual prrof because the US and UN will eat up anything they give us.

I also find Syrias' reaction intresting...does she not protest too much for fear that Israel has some satellite data or other hard "proof' of what was hit?

Pride.

It may not have been nuclear, but the target was probably well defended and I don't think Syria would want to admit how completely useless these defenses were to the IAF.

In a region approaching the precipice of a fullscale regional conflict, Israels actions were bold, aggressive and destructive in the goal of regional stability to say the least.

Clearly.

All this while several Arab countries were brokering peace?

This should blow up in Israel's face... but it never does. They'll walk away looking like the victim while the Arabs remain the violent agressors they "are".

:rolling eyes:
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2007, 12:39:44 PM »

I find it all very troublesome, and fear there is a GREAT deal more to this than anyone may realize.

I don't think Israel would do something like this unless she felt a very real threat to security.

I also find Syrias' reaction intresting...does she not protest too much for fear that Israel has some satellite data or other hard "proof' of what was hit?

In a region approaching the precipice of a fullscale regional conflict, Israels actions were bold, aggressive and destructive in the goal of regional stability to say the least.

I think you are spot on about Syria's silence IPWA...however I disagree that Israel's  actions acre destructive in the goal of regional stability.  Mossad prolly discovered something worthy of removing/destroying...Syria's lack of protest proves that IMO.

If Syria were to obtain nukes from NK or advanced weaponry to supply to Hez or itself, then regional stability will end...and instability will become more common place than what it is now with the balance of power in Israel's hands.
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Patton
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2007, 01:08:12 PM »

Quote from: Abraxas"
This should blow up in Israel's face... but it never does. They'll walk away looking like the victim while the Arabs remain the violent agressors they "are".

Well, forgive me for not jumping on the "Israel is wrong" bandwagon before anyone knows all the facts.

Quote from: neorealist
I think you are spot on about Syria's silence IPWA...however I disagree that Israel's  actions acre destructive in the goal of regional stability.  Mossad prolly discovered something worthy of removing/destroying...Syria's lack of protest proves that IMO.

If Syria were to obtain nukes from NK or advanced weaponry to supply to Hez or itself, then regional stability will end...and instability will become more common place than what it is now with the balance of power in Israel's hands.

I guess my intention was this attack doesn't help with current stability, however, if what like you said is the case and it is nukes that were at risk of moving into proximity of Israel's border, then I agree with your assessement.

And IF NK was the source of the material...that opens a new can of worms right there and bolsters an argument of not allowing Iran...a much closer ally to Syria in many ways...to go nuclear.


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Abraxas
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2007, 01:48:45 PM »

Quote from: Abraxas"
This should blow up in Israel's face... but it never does. They'll walk away looking like the victim while the Arabs remain the violent agressors they "are".

Well, forgive me for not jumping on the "Israel is wrong" bandwagon before anyone knows all the facts.

The silence on behalf of Israel is evidence enough of fishiness. If it WAS nuclear they would have data out the wazoo to prove it.

It also scares me that the US hasn't said anything against these obviously hostile actions by Israel.

I see issues worth considering and worth being worried over.

'Tis all.
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2007, 02:14:57 PM »

Quote from: Abraxas"
This should blow up in Israel's face... but it never does. They'll walk away looking like the victim while the Arabs remain the violent agressors they "are".

Well, forgive me for not jumping on the "Israel is wrong" bandwagon before anyone knows all the facts.

The silence on behalf of Israel is evidence enough of fishiness. If it WAS nuclear they would have data out the wazoo to prove it.

It also scares me that the US hasn't said anything against these obviously hostile actions by Israel.

I see issues worth considering and worth being worried over.

'Tis all.

Could be Israel doesn't want Syria to know what techniques and intelligence capabilities she has.
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2007, 04:36:59 PM »

Could be Israel doesn't want Syria to know what techniques and intelligence capabilities she has.

So you don't think Israel needs to justify it's attack? Photo reconisence or sensor data is not revealing any methods Syria doesn't already know about.

It's what legitimate governments do. They PROVE the enemy had a nuclear weapon.
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2007, 04:51:26 PM »

It's what legitimate governments do. They PROVE the enemy had a nuclear weapon.

legitimate government would never do that
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2007, 04:59:57 PM »

It's what legitimate governments do. They PROVE the enemy had a nuclear weapon.

Can you elaborate?

legitimate government would never do that
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2007, 05:40:40 PM »

I don't know what to make of the attack.  First, I think pre-emptive strikes in this part of the world are incredibly dangerous.  They aren't wise anywhere, but the Middle East is a powder-keg just waiting to go off.  To me, without concrete proof, it is just a bad idea.  I gave the US government the benefit of the doubt with Iraq, and it appears that they were totally mistaken.  After that, I have a hard time of just "trusting" the official story.

However, the difficulty of defending oneself from terrorist attacks makes pre-emptive strikes a more enticing prospect.  If you can knock out weapons before they are disseminated to Hezbollah or Hamas - that will undoubtedly save you blood in the future.  The point about not giving up you intelligence secrets cannot be dismissed.  It is highly likely that they have an informant.  Even the smallest bit of info could blow the cover of someone who may have a huge amount of knowledge, or someone that Israel has spent years getting in place. 

They may have also broken some sort of cipher.  This is usually protected at all costs as it is an enormous intelligence advantage if you can listen to conversations going on between people who think they are speaking securely.  Coming out with information that is detailed and accurate can give clues to the enemy about what you know - always a big no-no in the intelligence world.

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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2007, 05:52:50 PM »

I just think giving Israel a free pass for attacking another country without provocation or PROVEN reason is wrong... and it's wrong for the US to support that decision, or atleast not offer resistence.

If Syria had nuclear weapons it's the world's right to know and if North Korea sold them those weapons it is the world's right to know. These are issues that affect the safety of EVERY country on the planet and if Israel hides behind the, "we do not reveal sources of information" then we have NO reason to trust them.

At some point, especially when nuclear weapons are the issue, you have to forgo this and PROVE you attacked another country for a REASON.

Otherwise, Israel will think they can do this OFTEN. And that is BAD.
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2007, 06:37:11 PM »

I just think giving Israel a free pass for attacking another country without provocation or PROVEN reason is wrong... and it's wrong for the US to support that decision, or atleast not offer resistence.

I agree, a green light to do whatever it choses is not something that Israel should have.  At the same time however, they should not be held to any higher standard than their neighbors.

If Syria had nuclear weapons it's the world's right to know and if North Korea sold them those weapons it is the world's right to know. These are issues that affect the safety of EVERY country on the planet and if Israel hides behind the, "we do not reveal sources of information" then we have NO reason to trust them.

This, I disagree with - not in priniciple, but in practice.  Yes, in a perfect situation, the world does have a right to know.  But the stakes are far higher for Israel than, say, Belgium, or Hondorus.  If Syria has those weapons (something I am not convinced of), then the nation with the most to lose is Israel.  I think they are just being prudent by safeguarding their sources, methods, and information.  I would LIKE to know what Israel knows, but I don't think they have the duty to tell us if it risks their information gathering capabilities.

At some point, especially when nuclear weapons are the issue, you have to forgo this and PROVE you attacked another country for a REASON.

Otherwise, Israel will think they can do this OFTEN. And that is BAD.

I wonder if perhaps at a high level this information was shared with other nations?  I mean, I have heard very little from Europe condemning the attack and they are usually first to voice their displeasure.  Maybe they have protested, but I haven't heard it.  If they are keeping quiet, it may be a sign that their intelligence services have been convinced that Israel acted responisbly.  Again, I'm not saying this is the case, just throwing it out there.  Who knows, maybe it was a French, British, or German intelligence find........
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