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Author Topic: Israel's attack on Syria analysis  (Read 1440 times)
14-years-old-jane
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« Reply #45 on: September 20, 2007, 09:48:59 AM »

lol,,,
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #46 on: September 20, 2007, 12:31:19 PM »

.


it's obvious: it was a probe of Assad's determination. Such little strikes do not guarantee anything except a provocation. Assad was tested about his willingness to war; quite likely, about his readiness to enter war on Iran's side. Assad swallowed the provocation, and this makes a big regional war one big step closer.

The natural reaction to this act of war would be to launch a few missiles into Israel, as a test of Israel's air defense, and a couple into Turkey who, in fact, committed an act of war against Syria by allowing the attack to originate from her territory. Assad's failure to respond encourages the transoceanic war party to move further towards the big war.



Great to see MO, you Peisi! How are you and your family?

Oh, don't worry about Assad and Syria, they were just embarrassed their new 'tinker toys' from Russia didn't work. So sorry to hear that Peisi!


Warmest regards,
Terry

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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #47 on: September 20, 2007, 03:20:07 PM »

thanks Terry, we're OK. The strike created a new reality: the world has seen Syria swallow a slap on the face after several months of anxiety about the chances for a Israeli-Syrian war. Now it's obvious that Assad will back off from any war, whether alone or as an ally of Iran. The much talked-about Syrian attack on Israel in response to Israel's attack on Iran has been proved to be a fiction. The path to Iran has been cleared even more. Assad has shown his coward ass: he can fight with the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah or Iraqi insurgents, (and only as long as Iran is behind his back) but won't enter a fight himself. Syria is a non-factor in the big regional game. Now all pressure will concentrate on Iran. There is a chance that Americans will make a similar probe with Iran to check the reaction.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #48 on: September 20, 2007, 04:00:04 PM »

thanks Terry, we're OK. The strike created a new reality: the world has seen Syria swallow a slap on the face after several months of anxiety about the chances for a Israeli-Syrian war. Now it's obvious that Assad will back off from any war, whether alone or as an ally of Iran. The much talked-about Syrian attack on Israel in response to Israel's attack on Iran has been proved to be a fiction. The path to Iran has been cleared even more. Assad has shown his coward ass: he can fight with the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah or Iraqi insurgents, (and only as long as Iran is behind his back) but won't enter a fight himself. Syria is a non-factor in the big regional game. Now all pressure will concentrate on Iran. There is a chance that Americans will make a similar probe with Iran to check the reaction.



Damn, it's hotting up in a already hot area. Stay safe!


Warm regards
Terry
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« Reply #49 on: September 20, 2007, 04:31:28 PM »

If Syria is 'cowardly' as you state, when was the last time they invaded and destroyed a country based on a pack of lies, or rained down cluster bombs on a civilian populace? And if you're going to try stating Syria's support for Hezbollah or Hamas, I'll mention the US's support to the tune of billions of dollars in weaponry each year to Israel, which the IDF use to actively colonise the West Bank and choke Gaza.  After all, the IDF created Hezbollah when they invaded Lebanon in 1982.  Syria doesn't have to do anything, the same with Iran appart from watching the War party bleed itself to death in Iraq.  China and Russia have already said if nuclear weapons such as Bush's favourite bunker busting nukes are used on Iran, then they will come to Iran's aid as required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. 

It'd be a death sentence for Syria to attack Israel and just give the Israeli's an excuse to rain death upon the Syrian populace as they did to Lebanon last year, not to mention Assad is doing the right thing by the Syrian population. 

Finally the only reason why Syria and Iran are targeted is because they're not little lap dogs to the US and subsequently Israel as are Saudia Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.  Strange that the Saudi's are rewarded with billions of dollars in weaponry when almost 50% of the 'insurgents' in Iraq come from Saudia Arabia.  And which country did all but two of those 9/11 hijackers come from?
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2007, 04:38:32 PM »



Whatever Winston.  Roll Eyes
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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2007, 09:16:48 PM »

Being coward or brave has nothing to do with raining death on populations; both can do that. The "u can't hit me but I can hit u" digital warfare has nothing to do with cowardess. Matter is simple. Syria experienced a fully fledged act of war, - a military strike on her territory. Syria did not respond. That has altered strategic calculations. The Syrian boasting about "returning the Golans" has been proven fluff. The Syrian alliance with Iran has been proven to be relevant only insofar as Assad was receiving cash and weapons for himself and Hezbollah. If Syria does not respond to an attack on her own territory, will it respond to an attack on Iran? All this only increases pressure on Iran. Seems like this will be a war that simply has to happen because everyone is tired of fearing it. With the recent pronunciation of the French FM, u can be certain Americans have neutralized European opposition to an attack (the etiquette protests will of course be submitted). There is, though, a slight probability that Assad chose not to respond so that Syrian potential wouldn't be pre-emptively eliminated before the hour of the big affair comes. There is a chance that Israel is simply looking for war with Syria in order to destroy her army BEFORE the attack on Iran so that Israel won't fight on two fronts.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #52 on: September 20, 2007, 10:07:33 PM »

...


Being coward or brave has nothing to do with raining death on populations; both can do that. The "u can't hit me but I can hit u" digital warfare has nothing to do with cowardess. Matter is simple. Syria experienced a fully fledged act of war, - a military strike on her territory. Syria did not respond. That has altered strategic calculations. The Syrian boasting about "returning the Golans" has been proven fluff. The Syrian alliance with Iran has been proven to be relevant only insofar as Assad was receiving cash and weapons for himself and Hezbollah. If Syria does not respond to an attack on her own territory, will it respond to an attack on Iran? All this only increases pressure on Iran. Seems like this will be a war that simply has to happen because everyone is tired of fearing it. With the recent pronunciation of the French FM, u can be certain Americans have neutralized European opposition to an attack (the etiquette protests will of course be submitted). There is, though, a slight probability that Assad chose not to respond so that Syrian potential wouldn't be pre-emptively eliminated before the hour of the big affair comes. There is a chance that Israel is simply looking for war with Syria in order to destroy her army BEFORE the attack on Iran so that Israel won't fight on two fronts.



Might be Peisi mate! All I know for sure is Syria won't be Syria in a month or so.



Warm regard mate
Terry


...
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does !
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CedarPride
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« Reply #53 on: September 21, 2007, 09:25:51 AM »

Actually I think it's wrong to separate the Israeli action from the US on this one.

Well...I wrote the quote above three days ago.

The washington post today:

Quote
Israel, U.S. Shared Data On Suspected Nuclear Site
Bush Was Told of North Korean Presence in Syria, Sources Say


By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 21, 2007; Page A01

Israel's decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.

The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or the underlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeply troubled by Israel's assertion that North Korea was assisting the nuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.

With what is going in the ME at this time, whereas a much lesser incident could lead to all hell breaking loose, it is impossible for Israel to conduct such an attack without the knowledge and approval of the US . Simply out of the question.



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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #54 on: September 21, 2007, 09:44:36 AM »

Actually I think it's wrong to separate the Israeli action from the US on this one.

Well...I wrote the quote above three days ago.

The washington post today:

Quote
Israel, U.S. Shared Data On Suspected Nuclear Site
Bush Was Told of North Korean Presence in Syria, Sources Say


By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 21, 2007; Page A01

Israel's decision to attack Syria on Sept. 6, bombing a suspected nuclear site set up in apparent collaboration with North Korea, came after Israel shared intelligence with President Bush this summer indicating that North Korean nuclear personnel were in Syria, U.S. government sources said.

The Bush administration has not commented on the Israeli raid or the underlying intelligence. Although the administration was deeply troubled by Israel's assertion that North Korea was assisting the nuclear ambitions of a country closely linked with Iran, sources said, the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties, the sources said.

With what is going in the ME at this time, whereas a much lesser incident could lead to all hell breaking loose, it is impossible for Israel to conduct such an attack without the knowledge and approval of the US . Simply out of the question.







Cedar,


Right now, I think the only courtesy Israel is doing, is informing the U.S. what its intensions are, either before or after an 'event'. This does not necessarily mean that Israel has U.S. approval. Either way, the U.S. would not/could not intervene with those 12 Tribes without cutting funds and resources to them. But you have to remember, the U.S. wants a presence in the Mid-East whether you or I agree or not.

Kind regards
Terry

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CedarPride
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« Reply #55 on: September 21, 2007, 09:46:44 AM »

There is, though, a slight probability that Assad chose not to respond so that Syrian potential wouldn't be pre-emptively eliminated before the hour of the big affair comes. There is a chance that Israel is simply looking for war with Syria in order to destroy her army BEFORE the attack on Iran so that Israel won't fight on two fronts.

Both Assad and Israel know that Syria is no match to Israel. Assad cannot enter a one-sided war. If Iran is not willing to enter the war on their side at this time, then he won't retaliate.

Same as Israel would never have attacked had it not made sure beforehand that in case of retaliation from Syria and Iran, the US are ready to enter the war.

Same as last year, the approval of the Arabs and the US was given before Israel attacked Lebanon. Considering the instant Arab approval of the attack, this means the war was planned and the Arabs were all for it before Hizbullah's capturing of the two soldiers.

It is impossible for a country to just start a war in the ME before the equation is right. This happens all the time. There are red lines, and these are not easily crossed. All countries do their homeworks well before they do. Sometimes it goes to the point where enemies actually agree together that a certain red line can be crossed by one side in return for something the other side wants. You know, bargaining.

So, I guess now Syria is consulting with Iran. Would they eventually retaliate, or will there have to be another attack? If think the Israelis need war because they are afraid and they feel threatened. There is no way out of it.
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CedarPride
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« Reply #56 on: September 21, 2007, 09:59:48 AM »

Terry

Attacking Syria without the prior approval of the US will be suicide for Israel.

Such attack could mean all hell breaking loose. Israel cannot drag the US into a war they haven't approved beforehand or there will be hell to pay. And if Syria had retaliated and Iran had joined, then the US will have been forced to join. Are you saying that Israel can force the US to enter a war on Israel's terms and timing? Like they decide to start a full-fledge war and then go to the US and yell "Surprise"? This simply cannot be done.

And I don't care if the US are present in the ME or not. There has always been foreign presence in the ME throughout history and if it hadn't been the US, it would have been someone else. Who cares? My argument is with people who divide the world into the good side and the dark side with the US always being the bright side, and "non-US" supporters always being the dark side. The world is not black and white, and the US is certainly not all white all the time. Neither are its enemies or its local allies. There are shades of grey and no one wants to see them
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #57 on: September 21, 2007, 10:21:29 AM »

Terry

Attacking Syria without the prior approval of the US will be suicide for Israel.

Such attack could mean all hell breaking loose. Israel cannot drag the US into a war they haven't approved beforehand or there will be hell to pay. And if Syria had retaliated and Iran had joined, then the US will have been forced to join. Are you saying that Israel can force the US to enter a war on Israel's terms and timing? Like they decide to start a full-fledge war and then go to the US and yell "Surprise"? This simply cannot be done.

And I don't care if the US are present in the ME or not. There has always been foreign presence in the ME throughout history and if it hadn't been the US, it would have been someone else. Who cares? My argument is with people who divide the world into the good side and the dark side with the US always being the bright side, and "non-US" supporters always being the dark side. The world is not black and white, and the US is certainly not all white all the time. Neither are its enemies or its local allies. There are shades of grey and no one wants to see them



I agree completely Cedar. The point I was trying to make was that Syria is on the U.S. "don't care" list, thus no reaction from the U.S. You do understand that Syria may/may not have received plutonium. Israel, as you know, acts now and might think later.

Warmest regards
Terry

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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does !
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« Reply #58 on: September 21, 2007, 02:26:37 PM »

Strange that you used the term "coward" but now run away from it.

Being a coward has everything to do with the aerial bombing of civilians AKA 'incidental collateral damage' by individuals that better describe the term 'coward' than the one you labelled Assad as.  Individuals such as those in the Bush monarchy who deem it acceptable to beat up and destroy countries that pose no threat and never attacked the US and don't have the means to defend themselves all over a bunch of lies.  That's what I call 'cowardly'. The bodycounts from this from corporate terrorism far outweigh the number killed by extremist groups. 
And actually Syria did respond by taking their case to the UN General Assembly.  It's called following the rules of international law which I know is hard when the only 'law' one understands is that of 'Might makes Right'. 
By adopting this stance, Israel only further hastens it's own destruction and that of other countries in the Middle East. 
I'm really puzzled over your logic of a "War that simply has to happen because everyone is tired of fearting it".  I wonder would you be so willing for a conflict if it took part on US soil?  Makes a difference when your own country is the 'playground' of Armageddon. 
And because one country in Europe called France rattles the sabres that accounts for the rest of Europe?
The simple fact is that Russia and China have said that they will come to Iran's aid if they're attacked with nuclear weapons because they're obliged to under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  Do you know that one?  That's where under International Law a country is allowed to develop the means of peaceful nuclear power. It's the same one that Israel and Pakistan haven't signed but illegally obtained nuclear weapons thanks to the US.  Also something you wouldn't see on the FOX news channel.
Imagine this scenario - yes Israel attacks Syria and then attacks Iran and maybe too the US helps.  This so enrages the other Islamic countries in the Middle East, especially those who have lap dogs subservient to US policy.  A coup happens say in Pakistan and Islamic extremists get their hands on their nuclear weapon stocks.  In Saudi Arabia, the Saud monarchy is ovethrown by the people, (not that hard to envisage seeing as though almost 50% of the foreign fighters in Iraq are from Saudi Arabia and where did all those 9/11 terrorists come from again?) and they obtain all those fancy tinkertoys the US has been arming the royal family with. 
And that's just two countries in the Middle East. 
The end result is mutual destruction which is what Israel and the US is on the path too anyway. 
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #59 on: September 21, 2007, 03:03:37 PM »



Wrong sport. Keep speculating, which is fine but have a basis for it. Oh, a hearty Welcome to the Boards!!!!   Smiley   Cool



Warm regards
Terry
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does !
- Will Rogers
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So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
- Shulman
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