Simply on the basis of military spending, one might make a prediction for gloom or glory regarding the United States. Being that it spends more than all the major powers combined on 'defense,' there's no threat of the United States being overcome by military force, especially small radical groups with the power to attack no closer than an ocean's width away.

However, the money spent on military by the United States unquestionably drains from critical areas that could lead to the power's ultimate downfall. Education, infrastructure, and even disaster recovery fail where the money doesn't go. Education keeps the top crust, as well as the middle and even lower classes skilled and at the cutting edge of technology, but the US is obviously falling behind in that regard.

And though it prides itself on being the 'best,' the US allows foreign interests to eat away at its economy and even its real estate - on what should be a frightening scale for Americans. The Japanese pursue American land aggressively, and the Chinese are even taking shares in major US banks. The unity of the EU threatens to push the US out of the hegemonal spotlight, and the US' foes are far brighter in the world's view  than the "great satan."

How far ahead is the US than all the others? There is no country more powerful than the United States, but contenders, rather than fighting one another, are cooperating to boost their positions, especially economically - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is evidence of that. And cooperation has an interesting characteristic when compared with competition - in competition, the ends that meet are subtracted through the mutual destruction that nations inflict upon one another; when bodies cooperate, it's a matter of addition - an eye for an eye produces far less than a win-win arrangement.

Absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event, I wouldn't give it less than 20 years, like the article - but if current trends continue (and they do change), the United States won't last past the end of the 21st century as the big powerhouse on this little planet.

Democracy is very dynamic and adaptive in that public awareness and opinion changes government policy to address certain issues. Once people realize the dangers of the situation, witnessing the deterioration of American society, they may be influenced to act for progress.

Also Oswald, we want to survive the coming of a loss of influence, especially on the financial side. Don't you think that requires some proactive strategies?

-Terry

US is the largest economy and it will remain so. I believe that in 21 century the gaps between rich and poor countries will decrease because of globalisation and my belief that human are equal in abilities when given same tasks which in fact would make US not the king of the world but still it would remain leading country along with other superpowers.

Oswald,

After reading the article, several things struck me. One was the increase in the national budget caused by our now standing President. Previous Presidents have managed the deficit much better. The other thing I noted was the total military budget compared to the rest of the world. However he did not compare using percentage of GNP, which is a better apples to apples comparison. Lastly, I note that he offers no proactive strategies to get the U.S. back on track. Could this be because he is trying to sell his books?

Kind regards
Terry

Terry, I've thought on your question now for days without attempting to provide a response.  In the end, I believe choices being made by "the people" and "the politicians" will be the ultimate arbiter of the position of the U.S. in this century.

Maybe that sounds trite and unrealistic, but the U.S. geographically and physically since prior to and since  it was settled by Europeans has been imbued with the good fortune of great resources that were at the base of both economic success and which provided the ability to extend power globally. However, as those physical resources are used up and the attempts continue to use the power to acquire both resources and labor though the use of militarism, the end result is IMHO a questionable one.

The concepts of manifest destiny and gunboat diplomacy evident for so long
are no longer relevant in the current world as resources decline and population increases and there is no longer a territorial imperative, but the requirement
for alternative resources to provide the necessities for a reasonable standard of living for those who are the occupants of not just the 50 states, but the planet.

Individual choices on how to maximize personal resources as well as political choices to encourage conservation may end the end be the required factors
that not only are necessary for the U.S., but for the survival of the species as
climate changes beyond the control of humans, but exacerbated by humanity
continue.

IMO, it is past time to think globally about the planetary environment and put
aside the unrealistic and fallacious American Dream along with the application of the old sports analogy of "we're number one."

I have long been a participant in the Zogby polls.  Often a question is asked related to ones world view. One of the choices is do you see yourself as a citizen of your local community, state, the U.S. or of the world? I never fail to answer by clicking on the last option. 

 

I would not say "minimal". More likley the role of the US in global affairs will be diminished somewhat with the emergence of Europe and China as major players. If you read the article that you yourself linked to carefully you'll see that it does not say that US will become a minimal factor. Empires don't crumble overnight..........