The US has more or less has come to an impasse regarding Iraq. It has come to a point where it is obvious that the US can't bear the cost of stayin in Iraq, as things are, much longer. The sheer human cost, (4000 KIA and roughly about 40.000 injured or maimed, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi casualties) makes the job of the new administrtaion difficult as far as continued invasion of Iraq. On the other han it is clearly obvious that the US does not have (nor has had at any time) a clearly defined exit strategy.

The question that I am wondering is: Will the US eventually pull out? When will it pull out? What will happen in the aftermath? Any ideas?

Which Iraqi government (authority)? The one representing the Kurds, the Shia or the Sunnis? I guess the drawdown will in effect only serve to escalate sectarian fighting. I think that too early a withdrawl by the US will only help Sadr. My biggest fear is a divided Iraq and a premature disengagement by the US will in effect guarantee that outcome.

You said moderate ISLAMIC nations, not Arab. Since Turkey is not an Arab nation it's presence in an Arab nation like Iraq will be a challange to Arab nationalism, it will be resisted by Arabs and Kurds because Turkey is the old landlord.

You seem to be stuck in that frame of mind. That all issues relating to the ME is rooted in tribalism. What you fail to grasp is that first of all is that the history of the place is as old as history because that's where civilization was born and secondly people there have long memories. The silent animosity between the Shia and the rest of the Muslims is about 1300 years old. That is over a millenia and I can understand that it is difficult to grasp the significance of such issues for someone whose concept of national history is only, what? 300 years.

What happenned during the course of WWI between Turks and Arabs is something that is ingrained in the cultures of both sides. Turks see it as the Arab betrayel. In Hejaz, Yemen, Palestine and Iraq hundreds of thousands of our troops were killed by Arabs in uprisings. The whole eppisode is called the "Arab backstabbing" in Turkish folklore. Arabs have similar feelings about Turks.... Do you think that Turkey would be welcomed in Iraq, or Syria, or somewhere else....

Perhaps "tribalism" refers to the nomadic Arab "tribes" or "clans" that existed in the ME portion of the Ottoman Empire....however....they were not Turks....and the Turks did not have much control over these regions of their own Empire....much like Pakistan has no real control over it's FATA province......

The amerians will have to pull out whether because they can't bear the human cost or because the situation is back to stable.

But the question is not to be asked to George W. Bush or to us in the West, but to the Iraqis:
Are they done with killing each others or was 2 millions dead in a decade (10% of the population) not enough yet for them, and they want even more of it?
It realy depends on what the Iraqis want. If they want peace, a militia like Sadr's won't have much success even with all the US forces out.

IMO Bush has pumped everything the US had in matter of energy and volonteering for this war and the US economy needs an urgent cut in spending which will have to translate in fewer army personel based abroad.

One thing is sure: The americans don't risk anything if they wthdraw.
They are not in an impasse: They can sent all their men home tomorrow morning and nothing bad will happen for them.
For Iraqis it's qnother story, but not our problem anymore in this case.

If we pull out now we'll be cutting our losses and preventing further ones. Maybe the Iraqi people will also step up and defend their own country.

I agree, thought it's unclear what so-called Iraqis mean by their own country
Oil should stop being a reason for war and should be a reason for peace: Community leaders of Iraq have to understand that another war would disrupt both oil supply and oil revenue distribution and that peace will instead increase them.

An US withrawal will have the merit to force Iraqis leaders to tqke responsability for their own country.

Patton
I haven't had the time to read your post on british occupation but it's interrresting to see that History is repeating.
Here, however I don't think that domestic issues are as severe as to justify a military pull back.
IMO the Iraq War is weighting on the economy more or at least as much as the subprime crisis.
And if you include the oil price surge caused by this war then the negative effect is at least twice as important.
The US has spent too much money in Iraq with very minimal economical or technological feedback.