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Author Topic: Iran is an opportunity, not a target  (Read 3348 times)
Cryptomaniac
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2008, 05:03:03 PM »

Abraxas, I think it is pretty clear that we can work out our differences with Iran and that the new-found friendship would help both countries.  We definitely agree on that.

Quote from: crypto
It really seems like a perfect match.  So we have to deal with the Iranian government for a while.  Big whoop - we've dealt with far worse before.  Also, if you are an Israeli, you have to feel better if Iran and America are on good terms.  To me, this is a relationship that Iran knows would be destroyed if they did something to Israel.  I bet they would tone down the rhetoric if they knew it would keep Washington doing business with Iran..........

Not to sound like Untouchables or anything... but Israel would probably be miffed by any realtionship we can have with Iran. I'd imagine they would feel pretty... obsolete...

I should clarify this a bit.  The way I see it, America can be a far greater deterent (in regards to Iran attacking Israel) if we are friends with Iran than if we are enemies.  It seems as though Iran uses the Israeli issue as a way to get much needed support in the Middle East than it would have without Israel to point a finger at.  If the US and Iran had good relations, I think Iran would back off of the rhetoric.  Furthermore, I think the economic and political gains of being more "moderate" would far outweigh gains of being anti-Israel all the time.  It is almost like when two people who really dislike one another have a common friend.  In many cases, this common friend acts as a moderator between the others and has a way of cooling things down a little bit.  I just think the US could be a potential mediator between the two nations and help ratchet down the tensions a little.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2008, 07:49:01 PM »

Not only did they test a nuclear device, but they also test fired a long range missile that could (if it didn't fail) strike the west coast of the US. Also, if Israel's bombing of that target in Syria was legitimate, then so was the premise that North Korea gave Syria nuclear weapon technology.

I mean, if ANYone deserved to be invaded and have a regime changed, it was North Korea.

Imagine if Iran even did ONE of those things, let alone all THREE...

The hypocricy is BLINDING!


Different place. Far, far different situation. Iran has already threatened Israel with annihilation and you know Israel won't let that happen. You'd better hope that Obama is in power in 2010 because that is the estimated time that Iran will have a nuclear warhead.  Wink

Ever considered the fact that Israel is home to some of the holiest places in muslim world and home to many muslim arabs and jews? Annihilation would mean destroying those even from a radical point of view. Wink



The Persians don't care and have issued their edict.  Wink
.. let the Arabs deal with Iran. Israel will never be touched by Iran and everyone knows this. Even if Iran glows green, Israel will survive.
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Abraxas
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2008, 09:01:09 AM »

You are welcome!
Just a little note Abraxas. Try to look at the nuclear issue as a detterent from an iranian's perspective:

1- Both neighbouring countries of Iran (Iraq and Afghanistan) have been invaded by US and allies since 9/11.
2- Iran was labelled part of the 'axis of evil' in 2001 in Gearge Bush's union speech written by David Frum. Iraq one of the other members is already invaded.
3- North Korea the other member has so far been immune from any attack because it's claimed that it already has atleast one nuclear bomb.
4- Israel had threatened repeatedly that it would bomb Iran's nuclear facility because Iran a is a danger to Israel and the the rest of the international community. The fact that Israel was going to bomb the facility even before Ahmadienejad came into power in 2005 makes all those reasonings about his comments "wipng Israel off the map" immaterial.

I have argued that Ahmadienejad is a product of Bush and the failed policies that could have created rapproachment between the relatively moderate government of Khatami (previous iranian president) and Bill Clinton.

That said even Ahmadienejad is fully aware of the consequences of any attacks on Israel and believe me he is not that stupid.

Very true. I view Iran no differently than Pakistan and their pursuence of a nuclear weapon.

At least Iran's population (though not their leadership) seems a little more willing to work with us.

I should clarify this a bit.  The way I see it, America can be a far greater deterent (in regards to Iran attacking Israel) if we are friends with Iran than if we are enemies.  It seems as though Iran uses the Israeli issue as a way to get much needed support in the Middle East than it would have without Israel to point a finger at.  If the US and Iran had good relations, I think Iran would back off of the rhetoric.  Furthermore, I think the economic and political gains of being more "moderate" would far outweigh gains of being anti-Israel all the time.  It is almost like when two people who really dislike one another have a common friend.  In many cases, this common friend acts as a moderator between the others and has a way of cooling things down a little bit.  I just think the US could be a potential mediator between the two nations and help ratchet down the tensions a little.

Very true. And I completely agree.



As a side note, I would like to comment on how much "agreeing" we have going on here. And in a thread in the Middle East forum and about Iran, no less.

Who would have thought?





Also, I forgot to make that post about Iran and North Korea.

I have class soon and then a job interview this afternoon, so I'll have to get it later tonight. Sorry Terry. I wrote my post and forgot ALL about it.
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2008, 02:59:14 PM »

Just as a food for thought.

Whilst I am in agreement with some of you I believe change in Iran will have to be evolutionary and must come from within without foreign interferance.
 
One point of contention here that perhaps paves the way for some discussion is that some of you think the next irainan government should be friendly towards the US. IMO that statement per se is not sufficient and does not qualify for a choice. The responsibility of the government should be first and foremost to serve the interest of its citizens and to preserve the national security. Iran had a democratically elected government in 1953 that was toppled by MI5 and CIA to install the puppet government of Shah. This was a preferred choice because Shah protected americans interest in the region above all the other elements. Surely history will tell us that there's a expiry date on all these puppet governments friendly towards the US and that one day they will fall (Musharaff govt is a clear example). I guess what I am trying to say if it makes sense is that if there's no meddling with the internal politics of the next government by the US then there is a real chance to give with such an alliance a go.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2008, 03:06:02 PM »



.. If they don't throw a Nuke at Israel in the meantime. If that happens, all bets are off!
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2008, 04:33:39 PM »

Quote from: Kactus
The pros of opening talks with Iran far outweigh the cons and seems to be the only rational US foreign policy towards Iran.


And that's exactely what we are doing and what the US is doing at the moment. We talk with Iran on a daily basis. We seldom talk so much with a country. So what's wrong? What else do you want?
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Abraxas
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« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2008, 05:57:11 PM »

One point of contention here that perhaps paves the way for some discussion is that some of you think the next irainan government should be friendly towards the US. IMO that statement per se is not sufficient and does not qualify for a choice. The responsibility of the government should be first and foremost to serve the interest of its citizens and to preserve the national security. Iran had a democratically elected government in 1953 that was toppled by MI5 and CIA to install the puppet government of Shah. This was a preferred choice because Shah protected americans interest in the region above all the other elements. Surely history will tell us that there's a expiry date on all these puppet governments friendly towards the US and that one day they will fall (Musharaff govt is a clear example). I guess what I am trying to say if it makes sense is that if there's no meddling with the internal politics of the next government by the US then there is a real chance to give with such an alliance a go.

US foreign policy is short-term.

If it wasn't, we may not have the Taliban and certaintly wouldn't have had to deal with Suddam Hussein... TWICE.

I hope our strategy changes. Soon.
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« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2008, 11:36:26 PM »

With 8 months left to the US elections Bush's government may still decide to do do something carzy to undermine Baracks campaign. Afterall it was Barack who advocated direct talks.

There are still deep rooted mistrusts between the two nations based on the past and Barack seems a bit of a fresh air with a new policy.   


so you think if Bush engaged Iran diplomatically it would hurt Obama's campaign?  Do you think it would be wrong of Bush to do so, b/c he didn't call for it first?  DO you believe Obama was the first person to call for this?
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kactus
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2008, 02:44:04 PM »

Quote from: Kactus
The pros of opening talks with Iran far outweigh the cons and seems to be the only rational US foreign policy towards Iran.


And that's exactely what we are doing and what the US is doing at the moment. We talk with Iran on a daily basis. We seldom talk so much with a country. So what's wrong? What else do you want?

US is talking to Iran? jeez I am learning something new everyday!
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kactus
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2008, 02:47:32 PM »

One point of contention here that perhaps paves the way for some discussion is that some of you think the next irainan government should be friendly towards the US. IMO that statement per se is not sufficient and does not qualify for a choice. The responsibility of the government should be first and foremost to serve the interest of its citizens and to preserve the national security. Iran had a democratically elected government in 1953 that was toppled by MI5 and CIA to install the puppet government of Shah. This was a preferred choice because Shah protected americans interest in the region above all the other elements. Surely history will tell us that there's a expiry date on all these puppet governments friendly towards the US and that one day they will fall (Musharaff govt is a clear example). I guess what I am trying to say if it makes sense is that if there's no meddling with the internal politics of the next government by the US then there is a real chance to give with such an alliance a go.

US foreign policy is short-term.

If it wasn't, we may not have the Taliban and certaintly wouldn't have had to deal with Suddam Hussein... TWICE.

I hope our strategy changes. Soon.

Exactly! But the rules now have changed.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2008, 02:54:45 PM »



I wouldn't take my eyes off the ball, Israel to be exact.  Wink
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kactus
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« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2008, 03:05:15 PM »

With 8 months left to the US elections Bush's government may still decide to do do something carzy to undermine Baracks campaign. Afterall it was Barack who advocated direct talks.

There are still deep rooted mistrusts between the two nations based on the past and Barack seems a bit of a fresh air with a new policy.   


so you think if Bush engaged Iran diplomatically it would hurt Obama's campaign?  Do you think it would be wrong of Bush to do so, b/c he didn't call for it first?  DO you believe Obama was the first person to call for this?

No Neo. You didn't understand my post! By something crazy I meant Bush bombing Iran to appease the neocons and undermine Barack's campaign that advocated direct talks between the US and leaders of Iran and Cuba. No I don't think it would be wrong if Bush wanted to start a diplomatic talk with Iran but I find it highly unlikely given the circumstances and the relationship that exist between the two countries. I do think Obama is rational and can bring a fresh perspective on the table.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2008, 05:42:44 PM »

Quote from: Kactus
The pros of opening talks with Iran far outweigh the cons and seems to be the only rational US foreign policy towards Iran.


And that's exactely what we are doing and what the US is doing at the moment. We talk with Iran on a daily basis. We seldom talk so much with a country. So what's wrong? What else do you want?

US is talking to Iran? jeez I am learning something new everyday!

Yes indeed. Don't want to offend you, but you have to follow the facts a little bit closer.
It's obvious that there is no war in preparation against Iran, so why talking as if it was the case?

IMO the situation has evolved positively from one year ago.
One excellent developement was the agreement with Russia to enforece a third round of sanctions. Because as long as the Securoty Council will be able to agree on such measures to pressure Iran, war in unlikely. Wra will be much more likely if Russia and China didn't care at all and let Iran do what they want or even help them.
This last event is sure to create a change in opinions in Iran.

So, Bush is not talking with Iran? Maybe but they have not much to tell to each other anyway.
It's a problem inside Iran. A problem of voices in Iran to stop the program. There is not much that the West or the US can tell them about that.
The equation is quiet simple: They stop = no sanction, they continue = more sanction, they produce material for an atom bomb = war.
They know that. Now it's up to them to debate and decide if they want isolation, economic decline and war or if they want the opposite.
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kactus
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« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2008, 07:51:45 PM »

Quote

Yes indeed. Don't want to offend you, but you have to follow the facts a little bit closer.


You are not offending me at all. I am following this very closely but still fail to see that the US is in direct talks with Iran about the nuclear issue. US never held direct talks with iranian officials on this particluar issue as you claimed.

Quote
It's obvious that there is no war in preparation against Iran, so why talking as if it was the case?

Maybe obvious to you but not to me as long as Bush is still president.

Quote

IMO the situation has evolved positively from one year ago.
One excellent developement was the agreement with Russia to enforece a third round of sanctions. Because as long as the Securoty Council will be able to agree on such measures to pressure Iran, war in unlikely. Wra will be much more likely if Russia and China didn't care at all and let Iran do what they want or even help them.


You mean first apply the sanction to weaken a country and then attack? Isn't this what the west did to Iraq?

Quote
This last event is sure to create a change in opinions in Iran.

Sure it will! But it will change public perception in a negative way towards the US and the west. If the intention of these sanctions is to inflict economic hardship on ordinary iranians and create enough momentum to stop the government from acquiring the bomb I could have kind of seen the rational. But if infact the ultimate intention is to "always interfer in their affairs as long as 30% of our energy sources come from them" then what incentive is there for future moderate governments in Iran to form allainces with the US unless ofcourse they are a puppet/corrupted governments of saudi arabia, egypt and others? Personally, I think that's unlikely as I see the paradigm has shifted and the US knows that this model no longer works.
 
Quote
So, Bush is not talking with Iran? Maybe but they have not much to tell to each other anyway.

Oh yes there's plenty that both countries have talked directly in relation to Iraq and Afghanistan but not the nuclear issue.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2008, 01:18:50 PM »

Quote

Yes indeed. Don't want to offend you, but you have to follow the facts a little bit closer.

You are not offending me at all. I am following this very closely but still fail to see that the US is in direct talks with Iran about the nuclear issue. US never held direct talks with iranian officials on this particluar issue as you claimed.

I can't believe that in two years no american has ever talked to any iranian about the nuclear issue. But as I said they have not much to tell to each other on that topic in particular unlike, as you said, on Iraq and Afghqnistan issues.
. Hence the little exchange.
But if Iran has something new to say, I'm sure the US will be all ears.

Quote from: kactus
Quote
It's obvious that there is no war in preparation against Iran, so why talking as if it was the case?
Maybe obvious to you but not to me as long as Bush is still president.

So when Bush won't be president, or to be more exact when a democrat will be president, the situation will change? No, it won't change. Not in this case.

Quote from: kactus
Quote

IMO the situation has evolved positively from one year ago.
One excellent developement was the agreement with Russia to enforece a third round of sanctions. Because as long as the Securoty Council will be able to agree on such measures to pressure Iran, war in unlikely. Wra will be much more likely if Russia and China didn't care at all and let Iran do what they want or even help them.

You mean first apply the sanction to weaken a country and then attack? Isn't this what the west did to Iraq?

No the West didn't do that in Iraq. The West didn't plan 12 years of sanction in 1991 to attack by 2003. That doesn't make sens.
Also, some coutries behind the sanctions like France were against the war, remember.
If sanction has to apply in prevision of an attack, then we do a blockade and attack within a year. That's a different thing.

My point was that sanctions on Iran are a better solution than war. Without sanctions Iran will move faster to the point where war against them become unavoidable.

Quote from: kactus
Quote
This last event is sure to create a change in opinions in Iran.
Sure it will! But it will change public perception in a negative way towards the US and the west. If the intention of these sanctions is to inflict economic hardship on ordinary iranians and create enough momentum to stop the government from acquiring the bomb I could have kind of seen the rational. But if infact the ultimate intention is to "always interfer in their affairs as long as 30% of our energy sources come from them" then what incentive is there for future moderate governments in Iran to form allainces with the US unless ofcourse they are a puppet/corrupted governments of saudi arabia, egypt and others? Personally, I think that's unlikely as I see the paradigm has shifted and the US knows that this model no longer works.

Stopping them from aquiring the bomb is closely linked to them having "30% of our energy sources" and that it's an islamic dictature too.
I think we won't allow any country, even non islamic and non oil exporter to aquire nukes, but in the case of Iran, having huge reserve of oil, being located on the Persic Gulf and being an Islamic dictature compound our reasons to interfer.

Will sanctions on Iran deteriorate our image they have of us? Certainly. But not as bad as a war. Worse than letting them build the nukes, of course, but that's not an option.
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