Al Sadr is really the key to this whole thing. I think the increase in the number of troops helped give us a bargaining chip, though. Of course, I think Iran has a major part to play in all this too... but we're totally screwing up the oppurtunities we've had to make progress.

By no means can we defeat Al Sadr's army, but we can keep the region in coflict for decades... and Al Sadr is as disintrested in that prospect as we are.

Of course, while we may be able to keep things relatively calm... we're unconciously creating conflict between Al Maliki and Al Sadr. This is a hairy conflict between 2 men, both Shiite and both unhappy with the power of the other. So now we've got Sunnis killing Shia... and Shia killing Shia (as if this civil war wasn't already confusing enough).



In a nut shell?

We're in a VERY fragile position where peace in Iraq is dictated by forces WELL beyond our control...