http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7338326.stmI'm not a big fan of the IMF, and I don't always completely trust them, but they're certainly worth listening to. They are predicting that the world's economic growth will fall by 1.25% to 3.7% in 2008/09.
They're predicting a mild recession for the US this year, a fall of growth in the UK to 1.6%, and a fall of growth in the Eurozone to 1.4%. They also think there's a 1 in 4 chance of a world recession, and that the general credit squeeze could become much worse.
What are your thoughts? Do you agree with them or not?
The minutes of last week's meeting of the US Federal Reserve suggest a definite belief that the US is already in a recession (2 consecutive quarters of zero or negative growth).
And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice that the credit game is still only about half-way through. Still several hundred billion in imaginary assets being held on financial books right now...
I'm not so sure about the "mild" part of the recession. Recession in the USA for first half of 2008 certainly. There are many signs indicating it could be a long or severe one. I see very few signs suggesting a 'mild' one.
