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Author Topic: NATO Gets New Role as Gulf Arab State Partner (vs. Iran)  (Read 597 times)
Fredledingue
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« on: April 24, 2008, 01:48:09 PM »

For a long time we have been wondering what Nato is for since the USSR is no more. Some even said it should be dismantled...
Well, now we'v got a role for it: Ally different states from the west and from the arab world against the mounting fears of a nuclear Iran.

Quote from: Jaap De Hoop Scheffer
people thought of NATO as a "Cold War institution," ...it's an outdated stereotype.

Quote from: Abdullah Al Mouallimi, Saudi Arabia's ambassador
It's a question to some degree in terms of the role and the mission of NATO and I think that that lack of clarity is prevalent even within NATO circles,

Quote from: Sheikh Khaled Khalifa al Khalifa
"We in the Gulf think Iran has the right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but we fear Iran's intentions. We (the Gulf states) speak the same language on Iran,"  .

but...

Quote from: Azmy Khalifa, Egypt's ambassador to Bahrain
"The general feeling toward NATO, after what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, is not good,"


Quote from: Mohammed Abbas (journalist - no relation with the palestinian politician), in MANAMA (Reuters)
NATO, a 26-nation security and defense alliance of North American and European countries, has sought to bolster ties with Gulf Arab states. Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have agreed to explore cooperation opportunities.

At the conference, Bahrain signed an agreement with NATO on the exchange of security information.

NATO's dialogue with the Gulf countries is part of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, launched in 2004.

Saudi Arabia and Oman have yet to join the Istanbul initiative. An Omani conference delegate declined to comment on whether the country would eventually join while Saudi Arabia's representative said the kingdom had not yet decided.

NATO's involvement in Afghanistan, where violence has risen since the Taliban relaunched their insurgency to overthrow the pro-Western Afghan government and eject foreign troops, has disappointed many Arabs.

The role of key NATO members the United States and Britain in the Iraq war has also fostered skepticism, diplomats said.


full article
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Dormouse
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2008, 09:33:27 AM »

As one who has always been an ardent supporter of NATO, I must say I'm horrified at this kind of development.

Iran poses no threat to any nation of the North Atlantic group.  Ergo, NATO has no business being involved.

Using NATO as a figleaf for an expansive US militarist policy will be the end of NATO.

If this is what people what to use NATO for, I move we should disband it.  Western states must not be warmongers or foster organizations devoted to exporting war.



« Last Edit: April 25, 2008, 09:35:22 AM by Dormouse » Logged

Fredledingue
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2008, 11:52:28 AM »

Iran poses no threat today, I agree, but they will pose one once they got nuclear weapons.
Nato's role has been, for the most part, to protect its member aginst nuclear threats.
IMO, they prepare the terrain.
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kactus
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2008, 12:28:26 PM »

There is absolutely no proof that Iran is a threat to any NATO member let alone even if they are accused of acquiring a nuclear bomb in a near future. IMO this is all just a hogwash and I believe that certain media outlets are capitalising on this to make a case for war with Iran.
 
 
« Last Edit: April 27, 2008, 03:06:02 AM by kactus » Logged
Peisithanatos
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2008, 03:16:23 PM »

it's People vs. NATO now. Citizens of the NATO countries generally hold opinions different from those of their bureaucrats. Just let the people decide, and the European contingents will rush from Iraq and Afghanistan back to the native shores. Pretty much same with the Gulf monarchies. Were the Arabs given any word in their rulers' deeds, u'd see a 180 degree turn from the US towards Iran. What unites NATO and the Gulf monarchies, Berlusconi with Abdullah, Blair with Mubarak? They all support the US despite the wishes of their citizens. So the wholy alliance of NATO with Arab tyrants looks very natural. But besides the NATO+Sheikhs vs Iran, it's also NATO+Sheikhs vs Europeans and Arabs. Iran is becoming the global People's Choice. Behold, Iran will be the new Robin Hood. There will be cheering across the globe every time Iran manifest the Noble Protest to the System. Iran is people's underdog. Iran is the Rocky Balboa of the geopolitics.
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Dormouse
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2008, 04:59:26 AM »

Iran poses no threat today, I agree, but they will pose one once they got nuclear weapons.
Do you have any rational argument to back this up or is this a product of your crystal ball?

If one actually considers actual historical facts regarding events similar to the issue of Iran and nukes, it becomes pretty damn obvious that the acquistion of nuclear weapons tends to politically stablize a country, tends to reduce outward tensions with enemy states and tends to induce a peaceful political engagement with enemy states.

To illustrate this, one only has to look to the Indian sub-continent.  India and Pakistan have fought several wars and have a long list of grievances with each other - all in the last 60 years.  Once the two powers had a 'nuclear balance' against each other, they stopped going to war at the drop of a hat and started meaningful political engagement with each other. 

This is the doctrine of MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction.  It is to be noted that the only time a nuclear weapon has ever actually been used in war, it was when one power held a nuclear monopoly.  The instant that (US) nuclear monopoly was broken by the USSR, the probability of nuclear war diminished substantially and the probability of peaceful engagement between USSR and USA was increased.

So now, looking at the Middle East, we are faced with a situation where one state holds a regional nuclear monopoly - Israel.  This causes political instability and an increased likelihood of war.  On this basis, it is entirely reasonable, based on past historical patterns to expect that if/when Iran achieves nuclear weapon power, that will generally act to reduce overall political instability in the Middle East as it has in other previous 'power-rivalries' of our nuclear era.

Iranian nukes would act as a balance of power and reduce the military tension in the Middle East and western governments apparently don't like that one little bit. 

Quote from: Fredledingue
Nato's role has been, for the most part, to protect its member aginst nuclear threats.
IMO, they prepare the terrain.
This is totally and completely wrong.  The USA has always pushed to make NATO nuclear - it was not meant to be that way.

France officially departed the military arm of NATO in 1967 formally over objections to the US unilateral decision to make 'flexible response' nuclear doctrine substitute for a comprehensive ground defence of all NATO territory.

That is to say, the French objected to the US making nuclear weapons a first line in NATO defence.  NATO was meant to be a multinational conventional armed force, not a nuclear umbrella under US whim.
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neorealist
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2008, 05:12:27 PM »

While I am also in agreement that MAD USUALLY takes place in most historical situations...I don't think Pakistan is exactly peaceful, nor a good example for you main point.  It still harbors all types of terrorists and controls an auspicious intelligence org (ISI)

There are still frequent violent outbreaks b/t Pakistan and India, albeit there is no state-state conventional war.  The problem is:  when a poorer nation (such as Iran) has a team of underpaid scientists, it can be difficult to control them, especially when the state itself can't control its general population from engaged in violence rooted in fundamentalism. 

an analogy:  give some both street gangs enough arms to ensure that no side will win...well maybe they don't care if they live or day.

I was watching a PBS film about the Ayatollah and he had publicly stated that it would be acceptable is Iran was left in ashes as long as Islam spread throughout the world. (It tried looking for a citation by no luck..I assure you though PBS did document the quote)  I don't know how genuine this statement was...it might have just been said for political rhetoric, but if he truly meant this, you can forget MAD.

MAD is only applicable if and only if a participant cares for his or her people's livelihood (or this life on earth for our religious posters)...The underlying assumption is rationale and logic.  What if you literately have a crazy person in control who doesn't care about living on earth.  They look two a "higher" placement after our life on earth.
 
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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2008, 09:03:43 AM »

Quote
a poorer nation (such as Iran) has a team of underpaid scientists

in post-Soviet areas there were, and still are, hordes of spectacular yet underpaid, or even unpaid, scientists in all military areas. They haven't done any damage, to my knowledge.

Quote
he had publicly stated that it would be acceptable is Iran was left in ashes as long as Islam spread throughout the world.

i think it was the previous Ayatollah, and he is dead. Soviet leaders also talked about global proletarian revolution. Judge actions, not words. There is nothing suicidal in Iran's behaviour, so far as we don't confuse courage to resist US pressure with suicidal tendencies.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2008, 02:22:07 PM »

Peis and Dormouse

How do you know that the doctrine of MAD (superbly evocative acronym I must say) will work forever? How many instances of it have we seen? 2, 3?
How do make reliable statistical probabilities out of that? What if the forth case doesn't work? Huh?

No, I'm for ZERO tolerance toward those new powers who try to build nuclear weapons.
Pakistan, India and NK are already way too many. I'm against MAD: I don't want to live constantly under mutualy assured destruction treath.
How you can trust shiite Mullahs on a principle which held between the US and USSR and which was never a sure thing, is beyond me.
The US and the USSR had been sitting on a power kegg for some 40 years and you wold like to recommence that with the muslim fanatics?
You must be crazy.
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neorealist
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2008, 11:16:15 PM »

Quote
a poorer nation (such as Iran) has a team of underpaid scientists

in post-Soviet areas there were, and still are, hordes of spectacular yet underpaid, or even unpaid, scientists in all military areas. They haven't done any damage, to my knowledge.

Quote
he had publicly stated that it would be acceptable is Iran was left in ashes as long as Islam spread throughout the world.

i think it was the previous Ayatollah, and he is dead. Soviet leaders also talked about global proletarian revolution. Judge actions, not words. There is nothing suicidal in Iran's behaviour, so far as we don't confuse courage to resist US pressure with suicidal tendencies.

Those soviet scientist are controlled by their own gov't...an assumption of mine of course.

and while their no blatant suicidal behavior of Iran there has been some suicidal or at least provoking actions such as their Rev. Guard who piloted speed boats around US warships...while dropping unidentified objects into the water...and

I would like to believe that actions speak louder to words and they generally do, but that doesn't mean that you should discount what said. A statement like that genuinely makes me cast doubt on his rational and sanity.  I really wish I could find that speech some where...I'm going to look deeper.  I was under the impression that it was the current Ayatollah. 
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kactus
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2008, 01:11:02 AM »

Quote
Those soviet scientist are controlled by their own gov't...an assumption of mine of course.

What makes you think that it would be otherwise for the iranian scientists unless of course as you clearly stated it's your own assumption.

Quote
and while their no blatant suicidal behavior of Iran there has been some suicidal or at least provoking actions such as their Rev. Guard who piloted speed boats around US warships...while dropping unidentified objects into the water...and

A bit OT considering that different media outlets produce their own versions to this story. The other story I hear is that the alleged iranian guy that threatened to attack the US navy is not an iranian and is just a voice over. Look when at times of conflict each side uses its own propoganda machine to fabricate their own version of truth. Remember those "evil commies" in USSR? They were US enemy right?

Quote
I was under the impression that it was the current Ayatollah. 

That's what it all comes down to. You were under the impression and you are wrong... The guy that made the alleged statement has been dead for the last 19 years... Past leaders from other countries have made sweeping statements just like the Ayatollah. Should we go back and judge a whole nation based on what that one person said? You are right that actions speak louder than words. The funny thing is though that some of these suicidal actions were committed by the proxy US allies (YES US ALLIES NOT IRAN) against the US. Oh the irony of it...
« Last Edit: April 29, 2008, 01:06:49 PM by kactus » Logged
Peisithanatos
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2008, 02:57:45 AM »

the MAD thing has been discussed; I tend to think USSR would have been nuked in the 50s had it not tested a hydrogen in 1949. The seduction of a final solution to the commie problem would have been floating over the patriotic heads all the time. The argument that believers arу not quite rational as atheists has merits; but i deny anyone the right to deny nuclear access to any nation on the pretext of "i don't trust you".


Quote
Those soviet scientist are controlled by their own gov't...

I said "post-Soviet". Difference there is, trust me. Post-Soviet scientists were neither controlled nor paid. And they were decades ahead of anything that Iran has up to now.

Quote
provoking actions such as their Rev. Guard who piloted speed boats


that's the aberration of your political sight. American actions in the last decade alone were more "provocative" than anything Iran did since the Xerxes thrust into Hellada. How provocative would you find an unwarranted take-over of Mexico by Iran? See how different a standard of "provocativeness" u're applying to the two actors?

Quote
The guy that made the alleged statement has been dead for the last 19 years.

aha
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Dormouse
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2008, 06:33:11 AM »

Dormouse

...
You must be crazy.
Get back to me on this when you learn how to be civil. 

Its been a few years now and I see you still haven't learned.

I don't reply to insults - or posters who make them.
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2008, 01:39:40 PM »

I said this months ago:
If anyone here can name one country that acquired nuclear weapons for the sole purpose of using them, other than the US during the WWII, please speak up. Nuclear arms represent deterrent only. Otherwise you keep your mouth shut about creating them....whole point about a deterrent is to make a lot of brewhaha about it and public tests and so forth.

If not I have no reason to see Iran as simply pursuing their inherent right as a nation (as much right as any nation) to have a nuclear deterrent.

Hell, I've been arguing for a Canadian nuclear deterrent for years.





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neorealist
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2008, 01:51:13 PM »

Quote
Those soviet scientist are controlled by their own gov't...an assumption of mine of course.

What makes you think that it would be otherwise for the iranian scientists unless of course as you clearly stated it's your own assumption.

Quote
and while their no blatant suicidal behavior of Iran there has been some suicidal or at least provoking actions such as their Rev. Guard who piloted speed boats around US warships...while dropping unidentified objects into the water...and

A bit OT considering that different media outlets produce their own versions to this story. The other story I hear is that the alleged iranian guy that threatened to attack the US navy is not an iranian and is just a voice over. Look when at times of conflict each side uses its own propoganda machine to fabricate their own version of truth. Remember those "evil commies" in USSR? They were US enemy right?

Quote
I was under the impression that it was the current Ayatollah. 

That's what it all comes down to. You were under the impression and you are wrong... The guy that made the alleged statement has been dead for the last 19 years... Past leaders from other countries have made sweeping statements just like the Ayatollah. Should we go back and judge a whole nation based on what that one person said? You are right that actions speak louder than words. The funny thing is though that some of these suicidal actions were committed by the proxy US allies (YES US ALLIES NOT IRAN) against the US. Oh the irony of it...

You make fair points...but I'm pretty sure I am right about the current Ayatollah making those comments.  I'd have to read some proof admit my mistake.  No offense Cactus and Peis, but I'm going to trust my memory of PBS more than your post.
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