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Author Topic: Millions of Somalis Cannot Feed Themselves  (Read 1306 times)
Fredledingue
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« on: May 19, 2008, 11:15:40 AM »

Quote from: the Food and Agriculture Organisation
And the crisis will get much worse if April-June rains fail or are well below average,
source

Ok, but why are they s many millions? Why do poeple have 6 or 7 children when they can't even feed themselves and live where nothing grows because there is no water?

I hate to sound racist, egocentric or something, but how these poeple didn't know, didn't foreseen these problems when they made children? Why the authorities, the elders and other marabus never said anything?


Population of somalia in thousands. source: Wikipedia
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Patton
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2008, 11:56:46 AM »

Everyone likes to screw......hungry or not.
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2008, 07:15:18 PM »

The problem here is food insecurity, where you doing nothing different you can eat your fill or starve based on how the rest of the market/region is doing. And as I understand it in tough times bigger families are better able to sustain them selfs than smaller families.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2008, 10:38:59 AM »

Uncontrolled population growth creates sooner or later huge food problems among others.
Hunger being the most painful, inhuman and shocking of all the problems such as irrepairable environement damage, desertification, water pollution, diseases, etc.

Just see the case of Uganda:
These morons observed "cultural values", the governement even encouraged large families and now they are going to starve.

Quote from: Alana Herro on September 18, 2006
The Ugandan government’s lack of commitment to family planning is the main reason for the country’s extraordinary population growth, says Haub. The PRB study indicates that only 20 percent of married Ugandan women between the ages of 15 and 49 have access to contraception. Women in Uganda have an average of 6.9 children, compared with a global average of 2.7 and an African average of 5.1. Some government officials consider this a boon and may in fact be encouraging high birth rates; President Yoweri Museveni has called the nation’s population explosion a “great resource.”
source

and today...

Quote from: Reuters
Global price rises and floods last year have caused severe food shortages in northeast Uganda, where nearly 30 people have died and some have been reduced to eating rats, officials said on Tuesday.
 
The deaths occurred in the remote Karamoja region, an impoverished semi-arid area bordering Kenya and Sudan that is notorious for fighting over livestock and scant resources.

"From data we have collected, 28 people have died in the region as a result of an acute hunger situation, and the government seems less than bothered," said Peter Lakodo, a member of parliament from Karamoja.

He said the people had died over the past six weeks.

Government officials acknowledged hunger had claimed lives and led to a desperate situation, but did not give figures.

"There are reports of people being seen with rats pierced on sticks. This shows that the hunger situation has worsened," Aston Kajara, minister in charge of Karamoja, told reporters.
link
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tadpol
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2008, 01:52:43 PM »

Morons is kinda harsh. And "ing cultural values comes off pretty condescending. I know there is a problem, but it is not an African problem it is a world problem, food prices have climbed in a unforeseen manner, and if I understand how these things work prices will drop back nearly all the way to where they were in a year or two. To be honest for hard times in a hard place a death count of 30 does not seem unreasonable. I'm not well versed on Uganda, but isn't a local mp where government caring should come from?

I agree with Ugandan President, population and population growth are in a nation's national interests. Especially in countries with less capital, they need more people to build infrastructure to become a real player on the world stage. The problems you are thinking of come from poor management not the numbers of people, or density. And while pressures of growth can make shortsightedness seem good, I don't think that's what the problem is here.

6.9 is astounding though, I wouldn't have thought a nation could get an average that high, limited access to contraception probably helps, but that really surprises me. Are there no old maids, early deaths and small families or does this mean there are a lot of really large families or are they measuring something different from what I'm thinking of? That means like 10 year doubling? With an infrastructure this would quickly make them a power house, and I'd still look for movers and shakers in a place where so much of the population is young.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2008, 12:33:59 PM »

6.9 is the number of child/birth per woman (don't mix with the growth rate).
And yes, their population is doubling every ten years for 3 decades (why do you think I'm worrying?).

Any nation (Uganda and Somalia are just examples) who hold such birth rate on the long term (not a temporary baby-boom but a steady rate), is sure to face huge problem one day or another.

It's simple: The more there are poeple the more it's difficult to find food.
In east-Africa it came to point where the nation has to import food and don't have the leisure to build infrastructure.
Those who don't work in agriculture are spending all their salary for food and farmer have just enough for themselves, sometimes not even enough.
If their model was working (more youth in pastoral/farmland = more whealth), higher global food price should be good for them. Their bigger population was supposed to produce more food from the land and export. Unfortunately, the opposite happened:
80% works in agriculture and they still have to import food.

Food per capita is harder and harder to produce as the population grows. New families have to settle on less fertile land and further away from water sources.

Historical economy tells that in normal times it shouldn't take more than 3 hours per day for a family of farmer to feed themselves. (hunter-gatherer spent less than 2h per day). Today in Uganada and the likes, they certainly spend much more time than that.

Larger families don't create more whealth. They do when good land and water are abundant, not in dried out sand-stormed areas.
No one has time or money to spend for study, science, medecine or construction ingeneering. Everyboday has to work on a day to day basis to get something to eat in the evening.
But there are more and more poeple crowding the streets and queuing at the rarified medical centers.

The governement can't even have a larger army as they can't raise taxes to buy weapons for their soldiers.
But local militias are multiplying.

It's not only poor management: It's total unconciousenes, total disragard for long term sustainability, total ignorance of geography and history.
And I tell you: Their unreasonable mania for large families will get them down in deep doo doo.

Rise in global food price brought that up a little bit earlier but just of a few years. As long as global food prices were low and the West had exceedent to dump at a net loss (that's why western farmers are subsidied), ultra-low salary workers from Africa could afford imported food. Now that the West is using crops for ethanol, African have to pay not only the global market price, but their local price which may be even higher, and most definetly much higher interm of work hours and resources.

And you will see, it's the West funded UN which will have to sent "massive aid urgently to avoid human disaster", just because these poeple dreamed until now of building a powerful nation full of strong youth.

On one hand it hurts to watch starving little kids on tv at lunch time, it prompts you to do something or express outrage. And, yes, it's natural that you would want to give something to eat.

On the other hand why should we in the West give them money to help them build large families because it's their "traditional values"? Why should we feed the crazy demographic growth of Africa or elsewhere while we are at odds with raising two kids ourself? Why should an African nation dreaming of ethnic expansion ask for food to do that?
How come it's been decades that we heard of poor undernourished children, yet their population double in 10 or 15 years? That doesn't make sens.
Giving them food and money to help them survive and live decently inthe future, yes. To support them in their breeding obsession, no.

Though talk.
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tadpol
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2008, 03:26:55 PM »

I think we (meaning rich nations) should not be doing all the work of supporting poor nations, but I think independent of what we do it is in their interests to have more population. Though I do recognize some well educated and presumably far planing people disagree with me, I am in a similar argument over China's one child policy.

Coffee is the largest crop of Uganda and it's not really food, and I don't think it's price has risen anything like wheat corn or rice. Having done a very little reading on Uganda I'd be surprised if their farming was at a point were more labor/capital was not useful, though I'd respect statistics to the contrary.

As I understand it farming is a very hard way to get rich, though cash cropping is better than food, the more people that move out of farming into cities to work in factories or services the better for the nation. Most of their trade deficit is capital equipment, vehicles and oil all of which they have the resources to make locally so they should get more people working on that. I think that there is always a way to add more people to an economy to add value.

I understand that people who should know have suggested many of the government's/nation's problems can be blamed on corruption. This is just how I'd expect, it explains how a resource rich nation can be among the worst off in the world.

I think we have different Ideas of what Uganda looks like. I think that most of the country has good rainfall and soil with many hills and forests. I think it has plenty of natural resources still in the ground, and as an equatorial country with elevation solar power looks good in the places hydro doesn't.

I think with a good government providing political stability and peace between the various subgroups Uganda could do very well.

---added 6hr later
What I'm getting at is a difference between problems caused by people being alive and problems caused by people being jerks. I think of poor African problems are generally the later, and Uganda's specifically are exclusively problems people made not problems made of people.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2008, 12:27:06 AM by tadpol » Logged
Fredledingue
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2008, 11:07:27 AM »

Galloping demographic growth combined with massive coffee plantations hasn't pull this country out of the top 10 poorest countries of the World, that long before food and oil prices rose.
Now that food is globaly more expensive they face famine.

How that model worked in their interrest, as you clained, Tadpol,  I don't know...

Not only Uganda, but all countries with very fast population growth face the same problems.

Quote from: Hafez Ghanem, assistant director-general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Food is no longer the cheap commodity that it once was,
Rising food prices are bound to worsen the already unacceptable level of food deprivation suffered by 854 million people. We are facing the risk that the number of hungry will increase by many more millions of people.
article
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tadpol
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2008, 02:45:18 PM »

That's bad news about food prices, I'd expect those people to know what they're talking about, but I don't think it challenges the ideas I'm getting at. This shifts power to food exporters from food importers, and the way to make up the difference is to produce more of whatever it is you can produce, and that requires more people I'd think.

Think about China or India. Their power comes from massive amounts of human capital, and despite a historic lack of other capital they are now world players. I would think the same thing should work other places. Or do you make a distinction between population and population growth?

Is there a clear example of a well off country that raised it's population and became a poor country?

Here's another point I can't back up with fact. One would expect economic activity to produce at least a 5%, so with population growth at less than 5% I'd think scaling up the number of people working to be good for a nation.

Now I do recognize on a world scale with a long term time line it is dangerous to infinitely increase our population with finite space, but I don't think that is the issue here. It is in a nations self interest to have a higher percent of the total population and there is only one good way to do that; grow.
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gommi
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2008, 07:52:43 PM »

Quote
Larger families don't create more whealth. They do when good land and water are abundant, not in dried out sand-stormed areas.
No one has time or money to spend for study, science, medecine or construction ingeneering. Everyboday has to work on a day to day basis to get something to eat in the evening.
As tadpol stated the land has sufficient resources, however the people do not possess the capital necessary to increase production. Many Ugandans are employed by the coffee industry, which provides an extremely low income, and they cannot afford to be self-dependent.

I believe the only solution is to offer micro credit loans to Ugandan families, enabling them to create small businesses and support themselves with the additional income they receive, ending starvation. Eventually, strong local economies could be developed, and the state would be able to gain tax revenue for public infrastructure, health, and education.

You may consider this too optimistic though...
« Last Edit: May 22, 2008, 07:55:32 PM by gommi » Logged

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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2008, 08:44:53 PM »

The Somalian situation appears extremely dire. I must admit, until I read Freds thread, I had no idea that things looked so grim. It is predicted to turn into full blown famine within the next few months.

Reasons for this are:

1)Somalia has experienced an extreme drought making crops hard to grow

2)Years of civil war and political fighting(think of the movie Black Hawk Down) making aid practically hard. Many aid workers have been kidnapped and food aid captured.

3) Food prices soar because of  market increases in food prices globally.

4)Increase in population(as per Fred post)

5)Devaluation of the Somalian currency(Shilling) making the price of food imports higher.

All of this has resulted in:

Quote
The estimated number of those in need is up by 40 percent since January, and by the end of the year some 3.5 million, or half the Horn of Africa nation's population, could face serious food shortages, FAO technical adviser Cindy Holleman said.

Some 600,000 people living in cities and struggling to feed themselves as food prices rocket are putting a strain on precarious food supplies, while severe drought has hit the central and southern parts of the country, the FAO said.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iq5NwkH96dH-Dj5-SnGnPAgnssJQ
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2008, 02:19:38 PM »

... This shifts power to food exporters from food importers, and the way to make up the difference is to produce more of whatever it is you can produce, and that requires more people I'd think.

It requires more poeple only when there is labor shortage and in this case only. When population grows that fast there is no labor shortage, there is oversupply of labor. That's why coffee tree planters are paid less than $2 per day.
That's why also their agriculture is under mechanized and production per capita is much less that anywhere else in the world.

Quote
Think about China or India. Their power comes from massive amounts of human capital, and despite a historic lack of other capital they are now world players. I would think the same thing should work other places. Or do you make a distinction between population and population growth?

What makes China and India a "World Power" is the 55 millions chinese (and Indians in similar numbers) who made up the middle-class consumer (who earn as much as a middle class in the West and pay taxes in a system like ours).
That's the 5% of China and maybe 6% of India which make them global players of the might equivalent to France.
Not the one billion of poors (who have yet to pay a single rupiah in taxes).

China and India have been spectacularly stable (unlike Africa). Yet it took them until 2005 for their economy to be noticed on financial markets.
IMO their population growth has been a drag, or at best a null factor in their economical, political, cultural and military might today.
They would be as powerful with 3x less poeple IMO.

Quote
Is there a clear example of a well off country that raised it's population and became a poor country?
I don't have document to support that, but I'm absolutely sure that Africans and Indians et others were much better off 100 years ago than today.
100 years ago poeple were living off the best land in the safest places to be. Today you will find millions of poeple where no one lived before, in floodable bassins and deserts with record low rainfalls. In Brasil poeple live in shacks on mud-slinding hills. Most of thrid world poeple don't have access to modern facilities and technologies, save through international aid.
By contrast, the west has improved decade after decade the wellbeing and confort of its inhabitants.


Quote
Here's another point I can't back up with fact. One would expect economic activity to produce at least a 5%, so with population growth at less than 5% I'd think scaling up the number of people working to be good for a nation.

What you miss completely is that what is important is not the total GDP, but GDP per capita.

GDP increase based on population growth alone cannot be considered as an economical developement.

Quote
Now I do recognize on a world scale with a long term time line it is dangerous to infinitely increase our population with finite space, but I don't think that is the issue here. It is in a nations self interest to have a higher percent of the total population and there is only one good way to do that; grow.

I think the sistuation is already dangerous. But we don't know exactely what are the dangers exactely.
It's a little bit like global warming: We know there could be problems but we don't know which one.
Till which point can they go, nobody knows.
What is sure is that it cost less to help 300,000 popel stranded in flooded areas than 2,5 millions. It cost less to sent in emergency food for 100,000 than for 1,000,000. That's what I know.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2008, 02:25:51 PM by Fredledingue » Logged

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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2008, 09:59:16 PM »

It is possible that coffee production has all the labor it can handle, I am not familiar with coffee production in general or the state of the art in Uganda. But I am told the oil production field is understaffed there. And I agree with gommi, with relatively little start up capital small businesses could change the nation, coffee is not the only game in town.

You are right I was cheating with India and China, the political stability difference makes comparison difficult, sorry. Your thoughts on middle class are interesting, I'll have to think about them. I'm not sure China or India would do as well or be as important globally if they only had as many people as the US, presuming the same demographics I'd think that'd leave them with the same import export ratio but at a lower value meaning a lower percent of global trade passing through their hands.

Quote
I'm absolutely sure that Africans and Indians et others were much better off 100 years ago than today.
100 years ago people were living off the best land in the safest places to be. Today you will find millions of people where no one lived before, in floodable basins and deserts with record low rainfalls. In Brazil people live in shacks on mud-sliding hills. Most of third world people don't have access to modern facilities and technologies, save through international aid.
I'd agree that the worst off are worse off, but the best off are better off, and I'd suggest that on average wealth is up, even if mean living conditions are down. My point is this is an issue of distribution not creation of wealth.

On GDP per capita, I think I was getting at GDP per capita, as economic growth should out pace population growth using my numbers. What I'm not so sure about is whether most of the work a person does counts towards economic growth, or does that matter?

It is true that disasters of the same size will hurt more people when there are bigger populations in the same space, but there will be more people outside the disaster area to help them too presumably. Currently food production per person is going up, so this year is not the year we must fear for, but there are unsustainable practices sustaining that. I agree that long term global thinking is necessary on these issues, but I don't think Uganda or Somalia are the countries responsible for leading that movement, and until a plan is made I do not think it is bad for nations to do what they can to be players.
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2008, 12:19:47 AM »

Somalis as any non-developed, non-educated and retarded nation cannot do a thing besides having sex. Especially when women in their laws have no rights at all.

Now let me remind you that some African tribes were and do practicing cannibalism which could become a solid foundation for Somalia's economic stability.

I'm sick of those nations in Africa that do nothing and all the world need to help them. All those who whine about South African apartheid and inequality. Look on South Africa where white man does a job with black clown as leader and other nations where blacks control blacks.

It took generations to American blacks to equal their abilities with whites when even now in some cases it's unequal. In rare cases they became stronger because its much harder for black women ( Condi ) to be 2nd to white republic president than being a white man next to him.


Call me racist but this is what going on. In my country there are blacks and they not different than the ones in Somalia. They do lots of kids, don't do a thing a schools, whine about racism and get more money that regular newcomer. Which guarantee them to remain retard for the rest of their generations.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2008, 01:04:31 AM by mdma » Logged

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