Again from George Friedman:
That leaves the pressure on Tibet, and China struggling to contain it. Note that Beijing’s first imperative is to maintain China’s internal coherence. China’s great danger is always a weakening of the central government and the development of regionalism. Beijing is far from losing control, but recently we have observed a set of interesting breakdowns. The inability to control events in Tibet is one. Significant shortages of diesel fuel is a second. Shortages of rice and other grains is a third. These are small things, but they are things that should not be happening in a country as well-heeled in terms of cash as China is, and as accustomed as it is to managing security threats.
China must hold Tibet, and it will. The really interesting question is whether the stresses building up on China’s central administration are beginning to degrade its ability to control and manage events. It is easy to understand China’s obsession with Tibet. The next step is to watch China trying to pick up the pieces on a series of administrative miscues. That will give us a sense of the state of Chinese affairs.
Simply is China losing control? While he paints with a more optimistic brush, I have long contended that if China were to have economic problems their government would be UNABLE to control China and utterly implode, or fail, the country fracturing for the same reasons it did in the 1800s when its central government lost prestige and economic strength back then.
With all these pressures, the threat that something (such as economic down turn) might cause China to collapse is a very real threat.
This is actually a much deeper crisis than one might immediately think.
Obama, OR McCain, may inadvertently cause China to implode - depending on how they intend to effect certain status quos.
First...BioFuels HAS TO STOP - I can't speak that McCain absolutely wants to keep them, but Obama does...and this is causing record inflation of food prices.
Second...protectionist economics which may reduce Chinese competitiveness will almost certainly be a stake through the heart. Obama is a protectionist.
Third...delicate understanding of Asia's sensitivities and foremost, political problems, must be identified in order to get the RIGHT people into the Cabinet and Advisory positions - Obama has yet to even address a real Asian policy.
Asia today is like Europe of 1913, waiting to burst open at the seams impoverishing the world with their war and therefore dragging other great powers into it to stop it.
The right monetary and fiscal policies therefore must also be chosen, I'm not sure which candidates stand for what on this yet, but the right policies here would be whatever allows the dollar to be slightly weaker, and interest rates slightly higher, allowing for Yuan or Yen or Euros to flow into the US as a buffer for their own economies...there's a time when the breath should change and the US should breath out these currencies and its own and increase its interest rates but now is not the time.
The President won't have a strong influence on that but does have some...and so that should be considered.
At all costs, China cannot be allowed to collapse...the whole world will go to hell in a handbasket then...and a huge war would be the result.
