neorealist
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« Reply #45 on: July 21, 2008, 06:35:05 PM » |
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Iran trained and funded Hez through the IRG
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Patton
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« Reply #46 on: July 21, 2008, 06:48:43 PM » |
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I know the Hezbullah/Iran connection rather well....maybe I'm misunderstood.....let me rephrase:
What in world history would lead you to believe it is possible "that Iran would value a friendship with the US enough to moderate their position with regards to Israel?"
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 The Obama/Pelosi/Reid Party has started!
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Cryptomaniac
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« Reply #47 on: July 21, 2008, 08:14:30 PM » |
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Since you are both asking roughly the same question, I'll try to do my best to answer.
First, let me state that this is somewhat a leap of faith. I don't trust the Ayatollahs - not in the least, but I do believe that the Iranian public can and will (once the time is right) put together a government that we can work with. I should have been much clearer that I do not believe we can do much with the Iranian leadership of today.
Instead, I am talking about cultivating good-will with the Iranian people, a gesture I think will be repaid by the inevitable dissolution of their government in favor of one far more moderate and likely far more "Western".
But to do this, I think we have to start planting the seeds now. We need to be proactive in dealing with Iran especially now when things look bleak. This gets us "style points" so-to-speak because we will be able to say that we were willing to reach out. Iranians I think will respond positively to this. If we start working together in small ways, then I think the foundation is built for larger progress. Once Iran feels like it can trust the US, perhaps we can start to disuade them from supporting Hezbollah.
Put yourselves in the shoes of an average Iranian - maybe in his 20's or 30's. Does Hezbollah really get you anything? Do they make your lives more comfortable, do they offer opportunities to study abroad? Are they helping to increase your economic potential or perhaps most importantly, adding to your national prestige? I think the answer to every one of these questions is a resounding "no". But the United States can deliver in huge ways in all of the above. If given the choice between endlessly terrorizing Israel with a rag-tag group of criminals and thugs and having a lasting, positive, and rewarding relationship with the US, I think most Iranians (if we play our cards right) will chose to be on our side. Again, this is not something that will happen right away, but it is a possibility (I think) with time.
Neo, you bring up good points about sharing of intelligence. Sharing intelligence is a tricky business even between our UKUSA allies (UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand). Teaming up against Hezbollah is more confrontational than I think is realistic. But convincing the Iranians to hang them out to dry is much more workable in my mind. I also see posibilities in sharing limited intelligence against Al Qaeda (who Iran hates just as much as we do).
As for examples in world history. Well, I think there are countless examples of enemies becoming friends (see us and the Brits, or the Germans, or the Japanese, or to a lesser extent the Russians). Now, with regards to Iran moderating its position towards Israel - that I don't know. I could do a little research and maybe dig up something, but again, it is a leap of faith in many ways.
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Patton
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« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2008, 02:42:32 AM » |
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What do you suggest in "seed planting" with regards to their nuclear ambitions?
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 The Obama/Pelosi/Reid Party has started!
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #49 on: July 22, 2008, 02:56:26 AM » |
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What do you suggest in "seed planting" with regards to their nuclear ambitions?
Gen'ral mate, Israel has a good 'seed'. 
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #50 on: July 22, 2008, 01:54:29 PM » |
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IMO, it's impossible: Hezbullah and Iran are in the same politico-religious entity. Don't forget that Iran is a religious concept. It forbid any alliance with a western, decadent, immoral country like the US. Make peace yes (actualy there is peace), but be an ally with the land of Micheal Jackson and Madona, what Ayatholoah would look like after that? I think we shouldn't ignore the huge cultural differences when dealing with Iran. What the Iranian leadership wants even more than money, is the preservation of power of religion, on which their own power is based. To defuse the situation we should make abudantly clear that: -We don't intent to attack, invade or create regime change in Iran. -We don't intent to alter the morality of the Iranian poeple through cultural influence, human rights, women rights etc -That beside the nuclear issue, there is nothing to prevent us to hold normal relations. I would not say "to be friends", because for them that would sounds like an insult. How do miserable kafirs dare called themselves "friends" of those who embrace the true religion of Allah? But let's say that since business is better than war, we will not make war. 
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 Dr. Zoidberg is jewish (and an important AIPAC donator!) 
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neorealist
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« Reply #51 on: July 22, 2008, 03:05:45 PM » |
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quick update on the meeting:
Sec. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Gen. Gen. Brent Scowcroft touched on the usual DC PR....but the interesting points were:
1. Russia as THE intermediary playing the situation like a grandmaster playing chess. A Russian delegation visiting Iran had conveyed that this moment is their time in the spot light, and they should calculate accordingly. Russia is in a unique position amongst the G8 (and others placing sanctions on Iran). Russia is the only nation who could greatly benefit from military confrontation through oil prices and backdoor arms/defense sales. They have a self interest in delaying further sanctions (not stopping them though), and quietly assisting the escalation.
2. Iran's interior gov't is not as cohesive as the public may think. There is opposition to Ahmedenijad and his flamboyant supporters...There could be a future split in Iran political leadership, but obviously not its true head of state, the Ayatollah. They went on further stating that Iran top priority is to preserve the Islamic Theocracy and IRG.
The two then differed on how to approach negotiations: leaving or not leaving the military option on the table, what preconditions if any should be used, how to build the complex coalition of suppor ...I'm sure you can deduce which side said what concerning this.
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The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on. - Robert Bloch
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Cass
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« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2008, 03:50:42 PM » |
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I know the Hezbullah/Iran connection rather well....maybe I'm misunderstood.....let me rephrase:
What in world history would lead you to believe it is possible "that Iran would value a friendship with the US enough to moderate their position with regards to Israel?"
Could it be the U.S. might value a friendship with Iran and as a result moderate their total support for Israel? Is it possible there are "back door" negotiations going on far past the possible open attempt at diplomacy? Iran's young population may be the best hope for changes away from the mullahs and toward a more positive future? While some attempt to focus on Ahmadinejad and his statements related to Israel in particular, are they any more warlike and radical than the possible future elected Prime Minister of Isarel, Likud's Bibi Netanyahu? What is there quite realistically, that is to be gained other than the claim to the "support of the only democratic nation in the ME" which for some remains the mantra? Could it be that Israel and the inner conflicts there have become not worth the costs internationally. What about Brown's comments related to the settlements and moving forward with a two-state solution? http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=8c08f5d4-bb4d-435f-a0be-461a9cf2da8f Quite a difference in the reporting of Brown's statements related criticism of Israel as reported by a Canadian publication and once again the right wing DEBKAfile. It might be hard to recognize that it was the same speech considering the difference in emphasis. British PM Brown: Iran has choice of negotiations or isolation July 21, 2008, 6:29 PM (GMT+02:00) In the first address to the Knesset by a British prime minister, Gordon Brown said Monday, July 21: We have given Iran a clear choice: Accept our negotiations on its nuclear program or face growing isolation and collective response - not of one nation but many nations.” The UK, EU and US will work together to prevent Iran’s nuclear weapons program, he said. The British prime minister went on to say: “It is totally abhorrent for the Iranian president to say Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth. We condemn anti-Semitism and persecution in all its forms. Gordon Brown pledged that his government would “stand foursquare” against any boycott of Israel and Israeli academics. It is vital that every generation learns about the Holocaust, he said. Brown's spokesman said the premier did not rule out "extended sanctions in some form on the oil and gas sector" in Iran, OPEC's number two producer. The UK has already proposed sanctions designed to effect Iran's oil production, including refusing to supply spare parts to the Islamic Republic. Praising Israel’s stunning achievements in 60 years, he said: “We want a state of Palestine that accepts Israel as a friend and neighbor.” Lasting peace, he said, depended on the Palestinians stamping out "terrorists" and "Israel freezing, and withdrawing from, settlements"." He supported Jerusalem as a capital for both Israel and Palestine. PM Brown ended his two-day visit to Israel Monday afternoon after top level talks on UK-Israeli cooperation in the business, economic, scientific and education sectors. http://www.debka.com/headline_print.php?hid=5451Why not moderate the position rather than to create another ME war, most especially considering all that oil? Just asking. Please note: questions rather than stating an opinion.
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\\"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die.\\" Edward Kennedy, U.S. Senator
The old lion of the Senate, though a lion in winter, has lived to do more for this nation than John or Bobby though who knows what life would be like now had they lived.
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Cryptomaniac
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« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2008, 06:40:03 PM » |
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What do you suggest in "seed planting" with regards to their nuclear ambitions?
Well, this is not an easy question to answer. Assuming they are working on a weapon (and the latest intelligence assessments don't seem to make the case that they are), we are racing against the clock. The current leadership is going to work hard to get it, and we must work hard to stop it. I think we have a real chance of making real progress by doing two things. 1) Suspension of their enrichment activities - what would it take to convince the Iranians to halt their uranium enrichment? The threat of force isn't getting it done as the leadership knows that this will reinforce their power in Iran by galvanizing the Iranian population against the aggressor (which would be us). Instead, there needs to be some Hail-Mary diplomacy going on. We need to make it public that we will normalize all relations and hold talks at the HIGHEST level in exchange for suspension of enrichment. This has to be a full-fledged campaign targeted at the Iranian government and more importantly at the Iranian public. I think the average Iranian would be very critical of their government if they refused such a deal and the domestic pressure may force the hand of the Ayatollahs to reluctantly cease enrichment or risk massive public ridicule - something they can ill-afford to do. 2) Complete transparency in Iranian nuclear activities as requested by the IAEA - suspension of enrichment is the first part of the deal, but it is only a temporary victory. We need to know that Iran is NOT attempting to build a weapon. In fact, Iran should have the right to enrich uranium for energy purposes. I think we could convince them to provide this transparency by doing a couble of things. A public acknowledgement at the UN of Iran's right to pursue peaceful nuclear power and lifting of the enrichment ban for peaceful purposes in exchange for complete transparency to the IAEA and perhaps weapons inspectors from the UN. If the Iranians have no intention of building weapons, I can't imagine why this would be a problem for them. If they refuse, the world has some convincing evidence that Iran is trying to hide something and can take actions from there. These are really the two most important points in regards to their nuclear program. I think we have a very strong position to negotiate and can offer plenty of incentives for Iran to seriously consider playing ball. But the key is to really make this public. It should almost be as if we are negotiating with the Iranian people - they need to be the audience and they need to know of our offers. The key here is to twist the Iranian public to a point where the government risks chaos if they refuse. Again, this is a solution that requires a leap of faith. It is important to note that nothing is certain. The Iranian people may be completely apathetic to what we offer and the government could go about its business as usual. I don't think this will be the case. I think Iranians by-and-large are very interested in what is happening in the world, and very concerned about their image in the world. I think if we use our heads, we can reach our goals and build some small bridges with the Iranian people - a very good idea in my opinion.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2008, 10:51:07 PM » |
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I agree with Cryptomaniac that the U.S. and the West should engage Iran and it's people diplomatically. At present, there is an ongoing trade between Iran and the West, so there is some common ground already.
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
- Shulman
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Cass
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« Reply #55 on: July 25, 2008, 08:25:55 AM » |
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Terry, Cryptomaniac, I agree as well, but it appears this is certainly a case when all should listen, not necessarily to the general's such as Petraeus, who will continue to do what active duty generals do and follow orders from the current CIC, which appear at times to be confusing. Based on the statements here from General John Abizaid, hardly a novice in issues related to the Middle East, he apparently is also in agreement. While I suspect there will be those who argue for an attack by Israel and the U.S. to deter Iran though the news of the day is not very encouraging, there is only a small beginning of an attempt at deplomacy. Furthermore, in the end, it may be the only rational method for dealing with the powers that be in Iran, regardless of the statements Israel will never tolerate a nuclear armed state. Abizaid: "Iran Is Not a Suicide State; Deterrence Will Work" Posted July 23, 2008 | 03:20 PM (EST) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/abizaid-iraq-is-not-a-sui_b_114575.html?view=print
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\\"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die.\\" Edward Kennedy, U.S. Senator
The old lion of the Senate, though a lion in winter, has lived to do more for this nation than John or Bobby though who knows what life would be like now had they lived.
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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #56 on: July 28, 2008, 05:58:43 AM » |
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From a moral perspective it is perfectly acceptable as it is a matter of survival. survival at the cost of survival of the others. I don't know any moral doctrine, besides those rooted in voluntarism and social Darwinism, that commands such logic. It if it indeed that "oil decides who lives and who dies", then invasion for oil is a flat murder whereas a vital resource is denied to those to whom it lawfully belongs. But I don't think these wars, factual and speculative, have any thing to do with oil. The thing so widely forgotten is that oil profits are commonly made without military invasions, and that the oil lobby is generally regarded as "pro-Arab" in the US. The question is whether neocons can rely on Obama to strike Iran. His trend is completely in the direction of war. Obama has "explained" his Iran vision so much that it is barely distinguishable from McCain's. Both say that ALL means must be used, both say that sanctions, harsh sanctions, must be tried first. Both say there is a place for diplomacy. Both say "Israel's security is sacrosanct". Both say if dimplomacy and sanctions fail, force will be used. The only difference is that one is ready to meat directly, and the other says any talks can go only via EU and Russia. I wonder if Obama's drift towards war is a factor in the neocons slowing down the war march, or Iran's refusal to be daunted is the only factor.
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a big pile of bs covered with a thick layer of sugar
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #57 on: July 28, 2008, 09:08:49 AM » |
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Pisces, Obama essentially made McCain change his position on the issue because the American people (70% anyway) want out of Iraq. They are more concerned about the economy right now... "It's the economy, stupid" quote comes to mind. Also, billions and billions of dollars sink into a bottomless pit as well as the lives of brave young men. They do however, support the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan...
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
- Shulman
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Cass
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« Reply #58 on: July 28, 2008, 02:28:45 PM » |
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Terry, I'm not familiar with all the powers that be in Israel, today nor in the past other than by statements posted on Israeli sources I tend to read on a variety of daily. Because of my lack of familiarity, maybe you are more familiar and could comment on the recent article published on Haaretz? While some continue to insist on an attack on Iran, even if only accomplished by Israel, apparently this former Mossad chief disagrees. Last update - 07:27 26/07/2008 Report: Ex-Mossad chief says strike on Iran could 'affect us for 100 years' By Haaretz Service Former Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy told Time magazine in an interview published Thursday that an Israeli attack on Iran "could have an impact on us for the next 100 years" and should only be considered as a last resort. Halevy, who currently heads the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, added that an Iranian attack on Israel would probably have little impact, because Iranian missiles would largely be intercepted by Israel's advanced anti-missile defense system. Another former senior Mossad official, who reportedly served during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's administration, told the American magazine that "Iran's achievement is creating an image of itself as a scary superpower when it's really a paper tiger." An additional Israeli source told Time that Israel sees the period between the U.S. elections in November and the president's inauguration in January as the "window of opportunity" for a possible attack on Iran. The source explained that any military move against Iran would not be carried out before the elections, because it would negatively impact the presidential candidates, especially Republican candidate John McCain and "No Israel leader wants to be blamed for destroying the Republican chances," Time cited the source as saying. However, the magazine quoted intelligence sources as saying that an Israeli attack on Iran would likely stall the Islamic republic's nuclear aspirations only by "a year or two." Launching a long-range strike against a multitude of hidden targets in Iran entails huge risks and uncertain rewards, which makes the cost-benefit analysis weigh against an air strike on Iran, according to some senior Israeli officials who urge caution. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1005579.html
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\\"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die.\\" Edward Kennedy, U.S. Senator
The old lion of the Senate, though a lion in winter, has lived to do more for this nation than John or Bobby though who knows what life would be like now had they lived.
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #59 on: July 29, 2008, 03:48:51 AM » |
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Cass, There will be no attacks on Iran today, tomorrow, or ever. That would be like the Mid-East and the rest of the World slitting their collective wrists. There simply is too much at stake, and all the parties and possible parties well know it. Iranian leaders (who are Persians, not Arabs) are not as silly as their verbiage makes them out to be. If I am wrong on all this, we will have a clusterfeck of massive proportions. Again, time will provide the answers.  What we really need is a cautious but increasingly steady diplomatic engagement with Iran and it's people.
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
- Shulman
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