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Author Topic: Gross Domestic Product or GDP grew at a 1.9 percent  (Read 590 times)
Reaganite
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« on: July 31, 2008, 06:05:22 AM »

so...  No recession..

If next quarter has any growth that will mean Bush will leave office with no recession... cool..

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN3043337220080731

GDP gets stimulus checks boost
Thu Jul 31, 2008 9:31am EDT
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Expansion accelerated modestly in the second quarter as government stimulus payments helped consumers add more buying punch to the economy, a Commerce Department report on Thursday showed.

Gross Domestic Product or GDP grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate, up from a revised 0.9 percent rate in the first quarter that previously was reported as 1 percent.

That followed a 0.2 percent contraction in GDP during the final quarter of 2007 and avoided pushing the economy into back-to-back declines that would have met a popular definition of recession.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a 2.0 percent rise in GDP in the second quarter.

Separately, the Labor Department reported a sharp jump in the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits -- up 44,000 though officials said some special factors were involved.

Nonetheless, the prospect of rising unemployment was likely to fan new calls for additional stimulus to keep the jobless rolls from swelling in a slowly growing economy.

The Commerce Department said businesses reduced inventories at the sharpest rate since the end of 2001 in a sign they anticipate restrained growth ahead.

A key reading on core inflation -- personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy -- rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after gaining 2.3 percent in the first quarter. The moderation in core prices came despite a jump in overall prices to 4.2 percent from 3.6 percent in the first quarter.

U.S. stock futures fell and the dollar's value weakened against other key currencies after the data was issued. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt securities rose.

"At first glance, the 1.9 percent on GDP is OK," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist for Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto. "I don't see the risk of the market collapsing because of recession fears."

Consumer spending that fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, up from 0.9 percent in the first quarter and 1 percent in the fourth quarter last year. The department noted that personal incomes had risen more sharply in the second quarter and attributed it primarily to the stimulus payments that the government was issuing to qualifying consumers.

The economy continues to be hobbled by a severe downturn in the housing sector but the drag from it was less severe in the second quarter. Spending on homebuilding contracted at a 15.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, down from rates of 25.1 percent in the first quarter and 27 percent in last year's fourth quarter.

The department also issued benchmark revisions for the three-year period 2005-2007, which showed growth was weaker in each year than previously thought. GDP grew 2 percent in 2007 instead of 2.2 percent, 2.8 percent instead of 2.9 percent in 2006 and 2.9 percent rather than 3.1 percent in 2005.

The fourth quarter of 2007 was the weakest three months since the third quarter of 2001 amid the last official recession when it shrank at a 1.4 percent rate.

Businesses kept reducing inventories in the second quarter, possibly a sign that they are bracing for a prolonged period of lackluster growth. Stocks of unsold goods declined at a $62.2 billion rate -- the sharpest since an $86.7-billion rate in the fourth quarter of 2001 -- after decreases of $10.2 billion in the first quarter and $8.1 billion in the fourth quarter.

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neue regel
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2008, 06:15:31 AM »

Quote
Still, the second-quarter rebound wasn't as robust as economists had hoped; they were forecasting growth at a 2.4 percent pace. The pickup, while welcome, isn't likely to be seen as a signal that the fragile economy is healthy again. There are fears that as the bracing tonic of the tax rebates fades, the economy could be in for another rough patch later this year.

Wall Street didn't like what it saw. Stocks opened lower following two days of gains.

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080731/D928S78O0.html

Unfortunately, we aren't out of the weeds yet.
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Reaganite
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2008, 07:06:07 AM »

of course not but again.. No recession...
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Abraxas
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2008, 07:34:27 AM »

That's great news!

But recession or not, gas is $4 a gallon, fructose syrup and other common products made with corn are going up and government spending continues in excess...

... so pardon me if I'm not as warm and fuzzy about this as you.
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2008, 10:07:23 AM »

I am warm and fuzzy.  You should be warm and fuzzy, too. 

Without getting into the explicit details of finance, and why the street reacts negatively to this, just understand that the expectations of this quarter were met, and it is time to make some money by wringing the register.   Understand that at the end and beginning of the following week,  there has been some buying in the market.

Its that time of the year to do some stock shopping regardless of a bull or bear market. And do you know what I find?  Bargains everywhere!  Everything for cheap!  Money, money, money make me feel all warm and fuzzy!

Yeah, the press seriously needs to stop saying recession and we all need to as well.  Some stocks got hit so hard that their share price is worth less than the company.  Holy shit!

You have to love irrational people. 
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Irwin
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2008, 10:37:12 AM »

Ah, no, we are in a recession.

U.S. Recession May Have Begun in Last Quarter of 2007

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may have slipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures indicated....

``We're in a recession,'' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.''

The popular definition of a recession -- two consecutive quarters during which the economy shrinks -- isn't always fulfilled.

``While everyone focuses on GDP, keep in mind that it is not the only barometer of economic activity,'' David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, said in a July 28 note to clients. Growth ``is subject to huge historical revisions.''

The four other factors that the NBER takes into account, Rosenberg said, peaked between October 2007 and February 2008. The NBER usually declares a recession has started between six to 18 months after it's begun, according to its Web site.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axADxPkA6IA8&refer=home
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neue regel
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2008, 11:06:56 AM »

I think we're in a depression.
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Irwin
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2008, 11:15:20 AM »

I think we're in a depression.

You are not an economist, nor the, NBER, the organization that actually decides if we are in a recession. They were the ones who defined the 2001 recession you love to blame on Clinton.

The four other factors that the NBER takes into account, Rosenberg said, peaked between October 2007 and February 2008. The NBER usually declares a recession has started between six to 18 months after it's begun, according to its Web site.
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neue regel
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2008, 11:19:05 AM »

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You are not an economist, nor the, NBER, the organization that actually decides if we are in a recession. They were the ones who defined the 2001 recession you love to blame on Clinton.

Why do we need an organization to tell us if we are in a 'recession?' There is no real definition.

So I say we are in a depression.


Why not?
« Last Edit: July 31, 2008, 11:34:17 AM by neue regel » Logged
Reaganite
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2008, 11:48:19 AM »

Two quarters of negative economic growth is a RECESSION...

how hard is that to understand?

We may be in a MENTAL recession because people are being told the economy sucks (although it keeps growing) so much they are starting to believe it.
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neue regel
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2008, 11:56:04 AM »

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Two quarters of negative economic growth is a RECESSION...

Sir, I don't think you read correctly. Bush is in office so we are going to need to redefine some things, including the meaning of 'recession', because Allen Sinai said so...or at least he said we 'MAY' be in a recession.

He's not sure just yet.

Personally, we are closer to a depression or perhaps a word as of yet not made up ... maybe bushession... which would be 10x worse than a depression.
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Reaganite
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2008, 12:00:48 PM »

I see.. so the rules used should be thrown out .. I got ya....

Damn I been Bushed!!
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2008, 02:27:29 PM »

Two quarters of negative economic growth is a RECESSION...

how hard is that to understand?

We may be in a MENTAL recession because people are being told the economy sucks (although it keeps growing) so much they are starting to believe it.
So the economy isn't bad?  We are just being told it is?   Cheesy  You may really be as dumb as your online persona suggests....
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Reaganite
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2008, 02:31:20 PM »

The "economy" has been GROWING.. but people are being lied to and made to believe we are in a recession, you moron.

I figured since you are a mod and start the insults I can follow your lead.
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2008, 02:42:45 PM »

You just are a little too dense to realize the difference between 'You may really be as dumb as your online persona suggests....' and 'you moron.'.  And you forget that you really are nothing more than a pimple on the ass of IAP, one that is well known for posting racist stuff, made up stuff, and unsubstantiated stuff.  Not only would you not be a loss if you were banned, the place would actually be better. 

And yes, you are not very bright if you think 'growing' is all that is needed to have a healthy economy.   Roll Eyes
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