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Author Topic: Should We Panic??????!!!!  (Read 468 times)
nikola
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« on: November 01, 2007, 04:11:36 AM »

Some economists see the surge in the oil price as simply a symptom of the global demand for the black stuff, fuelled by runaway economic growth in China and other emerging markets. Some add that the relative strength of the euro and sterling will insulate Europeans from the brunt of the dollar-denominated increases. Others fret about the effects a heightened oil price will have on the West's stumbling economic performance. Can it be more burrning than this. Are we REALLY facing PEak Oil? Should we panic?!!!
Is it really a time to finally consider the switch to alternative energy sources? Should the UK consider new generation of reactors?
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Opmod
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2007, 06:42:40 AM »

I would argue that yes, we panic, not bvecuase we are reachign peak oil but becuase of what these continuing high prices will do to the economy. I know families that are not making it today becuase of gas prices. Now admitedly it is becuase they have chosen to live farther from thier place of employment than is advisable given prices but still a fact.

I do not run in circles with people who are what I would call low income but I can not imagine how they could be surviving with gas prices.

I personally am moving to within 10  miles driven from work. It will save me a HUGE amount of money.
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chovy
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2007, 02:31:07 PM »

"Should we panic?" -- no...when should you ever panic about anything? that just makes things worse.

"Will people panic?" -- absolutely Smiley

I am not heavily invested in oil, except via mutual funds, and only a small percentage at that. I'm not too worried about the house + oil. As soon as peak oil hits (and keep in mind we're not higher than  1974 prices adjusted for inflation), I'll be happy to finally get employers that offer telecommuting Smiley

There's a bright side to everything, you just gotta look for it.
I don't think it will trigger a nation wide depression where there are no jobs like it did during "The Depression".

Specific industries will suffer from housing/debt crunch (similar to dotcom bust), but I think the individual is only to blame..."Well, they charged me %48 interest!" isn't an excuse in my mind, you should have known before you agreed to it with your signature. Except in the case where people can be proven not to have been of "sound mind and body" where the signature was null and void because they didn't know what it was they were doing.

I *WISH* there were more jobs near me.


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Gojira
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2007, 06:30:38 PM »

We already hit peak oil.  Peak oil is just when the marginal product of oil decreases as more quantities of oil is produced so rising oil costs are the effect.  Due to increasing oil demand and increasing production costs, oil will continue to go up less natural cyclical fluctuations based upon the world economy. 

The world is not going to end.  We are not going to kill each other for oil.  There is still plenty of decomposed dino-goo in the earth.  Rising prices is just going to have to cause major shifts in how oil is consumed which will drastically change the way we live.  By 2040, I think gasoline use in transportation, the major consumer of gasoline, will be obsolete. 

The question is, when do we act?  Post-industrial European countries have already implemented incredibly efficient, clean and effective public transportation systems using huge tax burdens placed on oil, (through VAT though) traffic constriction, and congestion pricing.

I say we act now to save enough oil so that petroleum based product costs are not effected by the impending oil squeeze,  developed countries will not be held back for building their infrastructure and high-tech industries due to high prices and of course, start a wide scale reduction on our concurrent ecological destruction with the elimination of transportation pollution, elimination of cumbersome and costly transportation infrastructure, and end the American isolation of small towns and bring the American people together.

Let's begin by raising taxes on oil.
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chovy
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2007, 10:11:14 PM »

I like the part about "We are not going to kill each other for oil" given we're at war in Iraq over oil.

Raise taxes on oil, and lower them on renewable energy. I don't know there is "plenty" of dino-goo left at levels we can drill...there was about 20 years or so between a huge boom in oil and the last majory discovery (somewhere in mid-east).

We could tap alaska, but at less than 2% of  the supply, it isn't going to make much difference...why bother? Like sticking a band aid on a gun wound...what we need is to tap the sun...that will be around for awhile.
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2007, 05:29:34 AM »

The problem with your responce Chovy, is that by raising taxes on oil products and lowering them on renewables is that you will destroy to lower class. Those people who barely scrape by will not be scraping AT ALL.

The lower income guy with 3 kids is not going to be able to buy a car that can even run ethanol much less a hybrid or any other alternatives. He is lucky to have a car.

It insences me when people start making comments like this without considering the repercussions that such an action will have.

Washington is riddled with unintended consequences, don't add to them.
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Gojira
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2007, 10:56:10 AM »

I like the part about "We are not going to kill each other for oil" given we're at war in Iraq over oil.

OK, sorry.  That was an understatement.  What I mean is that throughout the history of civilization we have been killing each other for these resources and the amount of violence that goes on today, although still existant, does not compare to the violence that happened even 30 years ago.  The scale of violence encountered in the Vietnam War doesn't even compare to the War in Iraq.  My point is that the world will not erupt in a war to end all wars because of oil.  We will adapt, and althought fighting may still go on, it will not be as devasting as previous history.

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Raise taxes on oil, and lower them on renewable energy. I don't know there is "plenty" of dino-goo left at levels we can drill...there was about 20 years or so between a huge boom in oil and the last majory discovery (somewhere in mid-east).

We could tap alaska, but at less than 2% of  the supply, it isn't going to make much difference...why bother? Like sticking a band aid on a gun wound...what we need is to tap the sun...that will be around for awhile.

There are tons of untapped oil ready to be discovered.  The problem is that the amount of costs for searching and obtaining that oil along with rising oil demand, is what puts the strain on oil prices. 

When oil prices become so high that less than 2% becomes increadible valuable. 

The problem with your responce Chovy, is that by raising taxes on oil products and lowering them on renewables is that you will destroy to lower class. Those people who barely scrape by will not be scraping AT ALL.

The lower income guy with 3 kids is not going to be able to buy a car that can even run ethanol much less a hybrid or any other alternatives. He is lucky to have a car.

The whole idea of taxing oil is to get rid of the need for cars.  Cheap fuel encourages people to live out in the middle of nowhere which is from an explicit cost stand point increadibly expensive.  Most poor in urban areas use public transportation.  All the rural poor will have to move into more urban areas.   If you want to talk about the implicit cost of "The Destruction of Main Street" America you are entitled to believe that, however I think realistically that our economic landscape has changed and that idea of America can only be found in places like Disneyland.

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It insences me when people start making comments like this without considering the repercussions that such an action will have.

It insences me when people start making comments like this without considering that there opponent in debate has already thought of these conseqences and has made personal decisions on what the best outcome would be.

Quote
Washington is riddled with unintended consequences, don't add to them.

No policy is perfect.  It's all about finding who gets the most value out of a certain policy.  Obviously some people are going to get left behind, but they, like the economy, adapt.   IMO, I have no problem with the destruction of rural America.  Many people placed the blame on Wal-Mart causing its destruction.  I say Wal-Mart is the only one that holds it together.   But opinions are opinions, nothing more.
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chovy
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2007, 06:17:11 PM »

Even a minor tax increase on oil would help...or just a tax incentive for green energy, from cars to office bldgs.
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2007, 10:32:13 PM »

Part of the solution, ideally, is the dismantling of American Suburbia. It and it's useless lawns, long commutes, Soccer Mom SUVs(TM). Another problem is that we need to realize our mass consumption of products and waste isn't maintainable. We piss away far too many resources on useless products, planned obsolescence manufacturing duplication, and throw-away philosophies.

We also need to eliminate our irrational fear of nuclear energy and start a massive public works campaign to construct fission plants using spent fuel reprocessing techniques. Nuclear power is the single greatest way, aside from curbing consumption, to protect against greenhouse gas emissions. They currently prevent, each year, over 128 trillion tonnes of Greenhouse emissions and have minimal pollution compared to other forms of energy production, such as coal.

It will be hard, and Peak Oil will cause significant problems, as we are largely poorly prepared and ignorant of the problem, just as we are with Global Warming.  There will be considerable suffering in the transition process, but "thems the breaks." People need to realize that Bush's nonsense about the American Lifestyle being non-negotiable are faerietales.
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