Patton
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2007, 10:17:19 AM » |
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There was little activity on the front prior to the Ardennes offensive.
"All quiet on the western front......."
Too early to count all the chickens....prudence and vigilence should be the order of the day.
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Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood
-George S. Patton
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Major Zee Lee
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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2007, 01:57:03 PM » |
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There was little activity on the front prior to the Ardennes offensive.
"All quiet on the western front......."
Too early to count all the chickens....prudence and vigilence should be the order of the day.
That's my feeling about it. Unless you've piled 10,000 or 20,000 corpses of dead militias, captured hundreds of tons of explosives and imprisoned tens of thousands of volunteers faster than this resources could be rebuilt (say, 3 months), it's obvious they're not gone and may be reassembling their forces to unleash them at the best moment -right while you think it's time for optimism, right while your guard is down. Like, "a peaceful Xmas after the Surge has worked out"?  |
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Cryptomaniac
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2007, 03:40:20 PM » |
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I explicitly made reference to Al Qaeda AND the insurgents where? here's your first, and the only military, objective towards victory: 1) AQI made strategically and militarily irrelevant. We won't erradicate the whole group, but I re-read your post, - there is only al Qaeda mentioned as a hostile force that has to be defeated. Al Qaeda is the greatest single source of instability in Iraq. They are the ones who targeted the mosques, Forgive me for not making that distinction again in my answer to Zee. The first post I made on the topic of Tet included, "Beware of the spectatular attacks that Al Qaeda and insurgents will attempt to pull off to further discourage the American people and politicians." That was where I made the distinction and I am aware that they are not the same thing. Indeed, making Al Qaeda the #1 target on the military front was not an accident. In fact, the insurgents will not be eliminated by military force. The only solution to the insurgency as it stands now is political. That is what the political reconciliation is about. That will not stop Al Qaeda, but will dull the insurgency. Another point is that providing essential services, while lesson #1 in counter-insurgency operations, is NOT going to deter Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda can only be defeated by military action - whether that be from the US, or Iraqis fed-up with being targets of Al Qaeda. To be sure, I kept the insurgency OUT of the military picture on purpose, because they shouldn't be confronted militarily. The insurgency will start to fade when the lives of the people start getting better. That can ONLY happen in a secure environment, which Al Qaeda will not allow. Thus, removing the threat of Al Qaeda has to be the first course of action. Only then can reconciliation between people who actually have to live in Iraq take place. Two distinct enemies, two distinct courses of action on how to deal with them. I think my point has been made. |
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« Last Edit: November 15, 2007, 05:02:15 PM by Cryptomaniac »
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2007, 12:23:24 PM » |
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How about the victory over Shiite groups who have been in and out of the war business, and are intensely opposed to the US presence? How about the victory over the simple average dudes who may go to poll stations and vote for a pro-Iranian government? How about the victory over the Kurds who will continue to shift towards secession? You misunderstand US goals in Iraq, Peis. The US never ask for a war and therefore a victory against locals who had nothing to do with Saddam or al-Qaida. They also didn't come to Iraq to stop the 3000 years old tribal warfare or to solve Kurdish desire for independance, etc. Instead the military has made clear that they were washing their hand over it. Instinctively many iraqis fought against US occupation, outside al-qaida. Nevertheless, these iraqis finaly discovered that al-Qaida is worse than US forces. And they also know that Iranian occupation will be worse than the US one. No iraqi, even shiite, especialy shiite should I say, want to live under the iranian regime. It's simple: Even iranians don't want. If there are pro-Iranian groups, it's because Iran pay them. But the shiite population is not more pro-Iran than my left shoe. Seriousely, I don't see why Iraqi would want to share oil revenues with Mullahs in Tehran. They already don't want to share them with Baghdad! If you think that muslims in this region are all looking up to anything whatever it is provided it's anti-US, you are wrong. For them the US is only part of the problem. The final point is that the US doesn't need a victory in Iraq, but iraqis do need to rebuild their country together and create a space of peace ASAP, at least among themselves. |
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2007, 12:53:44 PM » |
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There was little activity on the front prior to the Ardennes offensive.
"All quiet on the western front......."
Too early to count all the chickens....prudence and vigilence should be the order of the day.
That's my feeling about it. Unless you've piled 10,000 or 20,000 corpses of dead militias, captured hundreds of tons of explosives and imprisoned tens of thousands of volunteers faster than this resources could be rebuilt (say, 3 months), it's obvious they're not gone and may be reassembling their forces ... They did it already but in 3 years instead of 3 months, and it didn't work indeed. But the drop in violence in a situation as desperate surprised everybody. The point which is totaly missed in this discussion is that a renewal of violence and a rebound in casualities will be a defeat much worse for the Iraqis who live there than for americans who see that only through abstract numbers. It would be surprising that a resurgence of violence be much popular just at when Iraqis see a light at the end of the tunel and start returning to their home. Not that there won't be any, but violence in Iraq should be increasingly unpopular. Peis, I don't see why Iran need Iraq and Syria for trade while 90% of their exports goes to China, India and elswhere via tankers. |
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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2007, 04:52:27 PM » |
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If there are pro-Iranian groups, it's because Iran pay them. how many groups, including the ruling groups, are paid by the US? How many opposition groups around the world are paid by the US, in this or that form? U have Musharraf and Bhutto struggling for power in Pakistan, and both are paid by the US. But Iran has reall MASS support throughout the region, as polls indicate (yes, u don't have to speculate what an average Arab thinks, - the polls exist showing pro-Iranian attitudes among Arab masses). But the shiite population is not more pro-Iran than my left shoe.
was your left shoe fleeing Iraq and finding refuge in Iran? The Shiite leaders were massacred, and those who escaped lived in Iran for decades, protected and funded by Iranians. By contrast, Americans left Shiites at Saddam's disposal during the 80s, then called them for an uprising, and left to be massacred by Saddam again. Let us say, the Shiites might not be pro-Iranian, they are pro-Shiite, whether Iraq, Iran or Lebanon is concerned. They also are pro-Muslim, pro-Hezbollah, pro-Hamas, etc. A democratic Iraq will have same policies on Hezbollah that Iran has, - not because it will be pro-Iranian, but because it will be democratic, and be guided by popular sentiments. That's what Americans are trying to prevent, throughout the Middle East, - a democratic regime, a regime guided by the popular ideas, because the bulk of population in the region are not exactly pro-American and pro-Israeli. |
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a big pile of bs covered with a thick layer of sugar
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Patton
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« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2007, 09:42:04 PM » |
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It would be surprising that a resurgence of violence be much popular just at when Iraqis see a light at the end of the tunel and start returning to their home.
Not that there won't be any, but violence in Iraq should be increasingly unpopular. Unpopular...yes. But until power vacuums are filled, an eventuality. |
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Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood
-George S. Patton
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #22 on: November 19, 2007, 12:50:52 PM » |
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A democratic Iraq will have same policies on Hezbollah that Iran has, - not because it will be pro-Iranian, but because it will be democratic, and be guided by popular sentiments. That's what Americans are trying to prevent, throughout the Middle East, - a democratic regime, a regime guided by the popular ideas, because the bulk of population in the region are not exactly pro-American and pro-Israeli. I agree with that. That's why the Palestinian and the Sheeba Farms issues are so important. It's a symbol for all muslims including Iraqis. Now it would be very unwise for a new governement to start a pro-Hamas song and dance while they are looking for international recognition, credibility and foreign investments. Of course, they can do it. They can play their little Amahdinejahd but it will cost them billions. Also Iraqis will not vote for politicians who "will bash Israel and the US". They are all voting for their ethnic group candidates and their political choice stops there. Just as there won't be a pro-US/Israel party against an anti-US/Israel party. Rather expect elected leaders, for whom Palestine is off-topic at the moment, to express the commonly accepted opinion while they are confortably sitting at their office. A little bit like Musharaf did. |
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« Last Edit: November 19, 2007, 12:53:22 PM by Fredledingue »
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2007, 03:54:38 AM » |
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. The Iraqi situation has improved to the point of just stabilizing the young government there, as all indications are that the Iraqis are wanting peace and are fighting anyone who doesn't. In other words, just a little more time until the complete drawdown of all foreign forces as the factions sort out and find a path back to harmony and balance. Al Qaeda is a non issue now, having to force 13 year olds to do what the weak old insurgency was capable in the past is history. Peisi, what is the MOSSAD spin on all of that, mate?  Regards Terry . |
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
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jpn of Seattle
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2007, 08:10:00 PM » |
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What ticks me off is the juvenile, petulant attitude by the political leaders of the opposing sides in Iraq. They won't talk to each other, they won't respect each other, they aren't even trying to reconcile their differences, which are huge. As far as I can see, there has been zero political progress. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/11/20/africa/ME-GEN-Iraq-Al-Maliki.phpHere's what Juan Cole has to say: JUAN COLE, University of Michigan: It's so discouraging that these high Iraqi officials who are presiding over a country that really is broken, which has millions of pressing problems, are behaving like kindergartners.
First, al-Maliki last spring wouldn't meet with his vice president, who's from the Sunni fundamentalist party, Tariq Al-Hashimi. They couldn't find time for each other, and then al-Hashimi got in a snit about that and his party withdrew from the government, so it's not a national unity government anymore.
And now Maliki is saying al-Hashimi is not -- as vice president, he has the responsibility of signing off on legislation, that there are 26 bills with him that he's refusing to sign off on. So they're blaming the stagnation on one another. They're absolutely refusing to compromise with one other.
Al-Maliki, when the Sunni parties withdrew from his cabinet, instead of going to them and saying, "What do you want? How could I bring you back in? What compromises are necessary here?" Al-Maliki fired them, basically, said they were absentee cabinet members, because they had resigned and refused to come to their offices. And this denies them their pensions and other prerogatives. So the whole thing seems to be very petty.
...
THE KURDS
And so Barzani has, in the Kurdistan Regional Government up north, has a big map in his mind of what Kurdistan will look like after everything is over, and it includes a lot of the rest of Iraq and maybe some other countries, too. And he's coddling these PKK guerillas and baiting Turkey, which may well invade and destabilize things.
THE SHIA
And then al-Maliki has not really reached out to the Sunni Arab community. He's had some talks with members of these tribal awakening groups, but he seems to be more interested in playing the Sunnis off against each other, really, than in making genuine compromises with them.
THE SUNNI
And then the Sunni Arabs, I think, still just don't get it, that they're 20 percent of the population and their former dominance of the country is over with, but that they can get rich, and be well off, and have productive lives, if only they find ways of compromising with the new situation.
You know, when we talk about the surge being successful, we should keep in mind that it's only a relative success. There are nearly 400 attacks a month in Baghdad. There's attacks, 100 a week, in al-Anbar province. A thousand people are dying a month.
I mean, in all of the North Ireland troubles over decades I think over 3,000 died, so that number is dying every three months here. So it's not a calm situation. But the situation has improved to the point where you could imagine imaginative politicians, people who are willing to reach out, if you had a Nelson Mandela or even somebody who would trade horses, like a Lyndon Johnson, who would go out and take advantage of this thing to make a deal. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec07/iraq_11-20.html |
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What you got is everything-and I mean everything—run by the political arm. It’s the reign of the Mayberry Machiavellis. --John DiIulio, former White House official
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Major Zee Lee
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« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2007, 01:43:24 AM » |
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What ticks me off is the juvenile, petulant attitude by the political leaders of the opposing sides in Iraq. (...) Oh, come on. There in your own country your Congress and your President can't agree upon nothing for about a year and half now, and that without each side's minions gleefully murdering each other's by the thousands...  In realpolitik, people does not compromise unless they're bloody afraid to not do so or they feel they're going to get the upper hand. Mutual sacrifice for sake of mutual compromise is left to extraordinary people, and that people is not common (else they would not be extraordinary). Now, there are few things that could scare Iraqi leaders into agreement, and it's not likely that any of these things may happen soon. And so they play to get the upper hand, which means nobody wins as spoiling the neighbor's victory is easier than assure your own victory. |
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2007, 09:16:57 AM » |
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They are scared that their ethnic populace won't aprove. Any gesture toward agreement with the rival tribes would be seen as a treason.
The least that they want is that their supporters turn against them.
When the populations will ask for national peace and reconciliation, politicians will do better.
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Peisithanatos
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« Reply #27 on: November 23, 2007, 03:15:02 PM » |
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would be very unwise for a new governement to start a pro-Hamas song and dance while they are looking for international recognition, credibility and foreign investments.
besides the US, no country bases it's relations with another country on issues like Hamas. Iran does not suffer a lack of investment, as the AEI study shows: http://www.aei.org/IranInteractive/And that despite the persistent talk of war which, by all reasons, should scare investors off a thousand miles. Syria, despite support for Hamas and Hezbollah, has normal relations with EU, not to mention others, like Russia (arms trade), China (potential source of investment, though not for the oil-less Syria, but surely for Sudan). BTW, Syria is not even under national sanctions from the US, - only particular individuals. What, if anything, hurts Syria, is the Hariri story. Her support for Hezbollah and Hamas doesn't hurt her. Iraq is in a far better position due to the oil; not even Americans would sanction it only because of the support for Hamas. So Americans are stuck in that they began what they can't finish. Saddam was totally lonely, isolated from both Syria and Iran. Given that the Tehran-Damascus connection already works, Iraq would naturally become the missing link between the two. That's the only thing that Americans are trying to prevent; democracy and rights and stuff are rhetorics (check the story with the Saudi rape victim, and remember that this is the #1 US ally, a closer ally than even Britain). the juvenile, petulant attitude by the political leaders of the opposing sides in Iraq expect juvenile things from juvenile subjects. Iraq is immature in terms of cooperation and compromise; and how could it be differnt? Arbitrarily created by Britain, sustained by force by various foreign and native regimes. Peisi, what is the MOSSAD spin on all of that, mate? Mossad is barely surviving under the thrust of break-heart liverals whining about every human bug crushed by the victorios march of Zionism. All these Peace-Now, Refuseniks and other kids from the campus can no longer carry the moral burden from the Nile to the Euphrates. |
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Terry Mathis
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« Reply #28 on: November 23, 2007, 03:30:30 PM » |
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. Codswollop (BS) Peisi mate! .. except that any MOSSAD agent will meet their demise sooner rather than later. Kind rgards Terry . |
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Its not what they say that bothers me, its what they say that just aint so that does ! - Will Rogers So that we may end the oppression wrought by our own hands.
- Shulman |
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Fredledingue
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« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2007, 02:10:41 PM » |
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Peis
It hurts them. Having normal relation is all right. Yet, having good relations would be better.
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