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Author Topic: Universal Probability Limit  (Read 1859 times)
Reasoned Faith
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« Reply #75 on: December 13, 2007, 06:47:15 AM »

barney, I addressed that possibility by considering that the entire universe was close packed into one concentrated area.  My assumption is the extreme of concentration.  The practical UPB is much, much  lower than 10^150 because of the reality of the expanse of the universe, the fact that macroparticles don't travel very quickly and don't collide nearly as often as they possibly can.  Never the less, I am content to  use 10^150 giving materialism far more latitude than it deserves.

Wow, that's so big of you!

So, face it: you don't know.  What is the real number, RF?

Why round to some number that isn't even close to what you think it really is?  What purpose is that?

10^142 rounded to 10^150 is a maximal limit 150 is an easy to remember number that I have used before and so continued with it to avoid a silly claim that I am changing the numbers.  It is a practical number that serves the purpose well and is intended to avoid needless debate about uncertainties.  Every advantage is given to material mechanisms with this number.  We can certaily use more precise numbers but it would not make any practical difference and it would be a waste of time to improve on the precision.


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Your own staement make the UPB irrelevent: you are admitting that it isn't even close to what you think it is.



It is a maximal limit.  Such is the nature of maximal limits.  It gives every advantage possible to materialistic processes.

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So what if you claim it is much greater - you make lots of claims that you don't intend on backing up.  Is it greater? Who cares, right?, as long as you create a number that makes it possible for your other calculations to show that things must have been designed.

I provided the basis, the values and the equations.  How can you say with a straight face that I am not backing up my claim?
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daedalus 2.0
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« Reply #76 on: December 14, 2007, 09:46:27 AM »


It is a maximal limit.  Such is the nature of maximal limits.  It gives every advantage possible to materialistic processes.

Sure, except that it doesn't represent reality. They are just numbers based on guesses of guesses.  You have no idea how life began, or the nature of particles in the beginning of the universe.

At least with your coin examples, you know that a coin has two sides.
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Reasoned Faith
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« Reply #77 on: December 14, 2007, 12:50:08 PM »

barney, you seem so far out of your element when speaking on probability that you come across as foolish. 

Can you make a case that I have underestimated any of the parameters I used?

Can you explain how specific knowledge regarding that beginning of life figures into calculation of a probability limit for macro events in this universe?

The macro events we were discussing, the ones applicable to use of maximal probablistic resources could not occur during the beginning of the universe so specific knowledge of the begining of the universe is not relevant either.
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daedalus 2.0
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« Reply #78 on: December 14, 2007, 01:17:03 PM »

Out of my league? As in how you are being crushed in the P&R section? ;-)

While I am horrible at math and probability its amazing that I am right and you are wrong.

I mention the origin of life because you flit back and forth when discussing ID. It is the same thing for you: Argument from Improbability. Argument from Ignorance. God of the Gaps.

Basically, you have not shown that your numbers have any real-world relationship to what we know about the formation/make-up or function of the universe - because we don't know. There are still things to discover through Fait.... er, no,... Science.

Its a shame.  With someone of your intellect you could write a book on the Mythology and Science of Klingons.
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« Reply #79 on: December 14, 2007, 09:18:53 PM »

Out of my league? As in how you are being crushed in the P&R section? ;-)

While I am horrible at math and probability its amazing that I am right and you are wrong.

It is at one level amazing, but considering your prejudice expected, that you recognize your poor abilities yet still have convinced yourself that you are correct.
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daedalus 2.0
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« Reply #80 on: December 14, 2007, 09:32:36 PM »

RF, are you an expert in the field of probability? How do you know you are right?
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« Reply #81 on: December 15, 2007, 09:19:22 AM »

I have formal training and 23 years experience in use of probability and experimental statistics.   How much expertise is required to count the maximal number of opportunities available to act on chance?
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